Monday, December 30, 2013

2014 Predictions

These aren't my official predictions (those will come on Election Day), but in a New Year's, why-not, might-as-well spirit, here goes:

  • Democrats will neither retake the House nor significantly dent the Republican majority.  The results will be such that under normal presidential year conditions, no one will expect Democrats to retake the House in 2016 either.
  • One, and only one, Republican Senator facing a Tea Party challenge will lose
  • Primary choices will cost Republicans one of these three races: Alaska, North Carolina, Georgia
  • Democrats will make a small net gain of 1-2 governorships, but Republicans will retain the majority. Their next realistic chance to take the majority won't come until 2018
  • Tom Corbett will lose reelection
  • One Republican who has not yet announced a run will enter one of the non-competitive Senate races and make it competitive
  • Related to previous: the Hawaii Senate race will tantalize Republicans by appearing competitive, but this will again be a false hope for them
  • Susan Collins will not retire
  • The Louisiana Senate race will go to a runoff
  • That runoff will not determine control of the Senate
  • A net gain of three Senate seats will be the Republican floor
  • Tom Cotton will become the youngest US Senator
  • Rick Scott will again be elected Governor of Florida with more Floridians disapproving of him than approving
  • Jason Carter and Terri Lynn Land will both lose, but will come closer to winning than any candidate of their respective parties in ten years
  • If the Republican nominee doesn't hand her the race, Michelle Nunn will do the same
That's all for now, but check back for more later.