Senate Race Analysis 2013-2014

2013-2014 Senate:

Safe DLikely DLeans DTossupLeans RLikely RSafe R
New Jersey
New Mexico
Rhode Island

New Hampshire
North Carolina
South Dakota
West Virginia
Oklahoma 1
Oklahoma 2
South Carolina 1
South Carolina 2

Alabama Safe R Incumbent Jeff Sessions (R)

(12/20/13) Sessions doesn't even have an opponent yet.  That says all you need to know about this race.

Alaska Tossup Incumbent Mark Begich (D)

(12/20/13) The polls so far have generally found Begich vulnerable to a decent Republican, with Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan close behind him.  The good news for Begich is that the Republican primary will probably be nasty, and Treadwell has so far been a terrible fundraiser.  One wild card: 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller is running again.  The polling is unanimous that he'd be a disastrous nominee, but with Treadwell and Sullivan splitting the establishment vote, he could win the currently fairly wide-open primary.

(1/14/14) Well, Sullivan certainly established himself as an alternative to Treadwell, with $1.25 million in fundraising.

(1/27/14) Meanwhile, Treadwell took in less than a fifth of what Sullivan raised.

(2/5/14) Begich doesn't appear to have suffered much from the Democrats' recent troubles, according to PPP, leading Treadwell by 6 (up from 4 last July), Miller by 20 (down from 23), and Sullivan by 4 (down from 7), and his approval rating is largely unchanged.  That said, there are a couple of things that should have Begich worried.  His lead over Palin is down 8, and he's now well below a majority against Palin and Miller. That doesn't mean Miller is a threat to him (his nomination would still be a disaster), but if Begich can't get over a majority against a guy even a majority of Republicans don't like... Meanwhile, Treadwell's position in the primary has deteriorated, and he now trails Sullivan by 5, which is not a good position considering his financial disadvantage.

(3/4/14) Democrats are already hitting Sullivan.

(3/12/14) Now the Club for Growth is endorsing Sullivan, giving him both establishment and Tea Party support.

(3/24/14) American Crossroads has an ad up with Condoleezza Rice defending Sullivan on residency issues.

(3/25/14) Rasmussen has Begich tying Sullivan and trailing Treadwell by 4.

(4/9/14) Begich raised $1 million last quarter.

(4/10/14) Sullivan raised $1.3 million last quarter, making this the second quarter he's significantly outraised Begich.

(4/13/14) Complicating things, Miller might run as an Independent, possibly acting as a spoiler.

(4/18/14) Another poor fundraising quarter for Miller.

(4/22/14) Both Miller and Treadwell continue to struggle in fundraising - both raised a little over $100,000 last quarter (not including almost $200,000 self-funding on Treadwell's part).  And on the subject of Miller, Politico magazine has a great piece on him here, while a poll (a couple of months old) has him taking 10% if he ran as an Independent, with Begich leading Sullivan by 12.

(4/30/14) Republican Magellan Stategies has Sullivan leading Begich by 5, 46-41.

(5/2/14) Miller says he doesn't intend to run as an Independent.

(5/5/14) A Sullivan internal has him trailing Begich by 2, and leading Treadwell by 16 in the primary.

(5/14/14) PPP has Begich leading Sullivan by 5, Sarah Palin by 6, Treadwell by 8, and Miller by 16. Sullivan has a 14-point lead in the Republican primary, and Miller is well back in third, with 14% of the vote.

(6/5/14) Dittman Research, in a poll for the other Dan Sullivan's campaign (the Mayor of Anchorage running for LG, not the Natural Resources Commissioner running for Senate), has Sullivan leading Treadwell by only 2, 37-35, with 12% for Miller.

(6/13/14) Vox Populi has Sullivan leading Treadwell by 9.

(7/1/14) American Crossroads is reserving $5.6 million in ads.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Begich leading Treadwell by 2 and, interestingly, Sullivan by 12.

(8/5/14) PPP has Begich leading Treadwell by 5 and Sullivan by 6.  The primary is much closer than it was in their last poll, with Sullivan now leading Treadwell by 6.

(8/18/14) Sullivan has about $1 million cash-on-hand, while Treadwell has $160,000 cash-on-hand but $250,000 in debt.

(8/20/14) Republicans averted disaster last night by making Sullivan - instead of Miller - their nominee.

(8/26/14) Rasmussen has Sullivan leading Begich by 2.

(9/3/14) No write-in candidacy from Miller.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Sullivan up 6.

(9/17/14) Hays Research Group for the AFL-CIO has Begich up 4.

(9/23/14) PPP has Sullivan up 2 with third parties included, and up 3 without them.

(9/25/14) The NRA isn't going to endorse.

(9/25/14) Rasmussen has Sullivan up 5.

(9/26/14) A few new polls out: two polls for the pro-Begich Senate Majority PAC and AFL-CIO have Begich up 5, one for the pro-Sullivan Chamber of Commerce has Sullivan up 6, and Marc Hellenthal has Sullivan up 5.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Sullivan up 6.

(10/8/14) FOX News has Sullivan up 4.

(10/9/14) CNN/ORC has Sullivan up 6.  Tossup/Adv. Sullivan.

(10/15/14) Both Begich and Sullivan have about $1.2 million cash on hand.

(10/15/14) Rasmussen has Sullivan up 3.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Sullivan up 4.

(10/26/14) File under questionable poll results: Marc Hellenthal has Begich up 10.

(10/28/14) Ivan Moore has Begich up 8.  I don't really believe the results are accurate, but it is a good illustration of both the difficulties of polling Alaska and the reason I kept Alaska a Tossup while moving other red-state races with similar Republican polling leads (Arkansas and Louisiana) to Leans R.

(10/31/14) Rasmussen has Sullivan up 5.

(11/3/14) PPP has Sullivan up 1 both with and without third parties.

Arkansas Leans R Incumbent Mark Pyor (D)

(12/20/13) This race is one of the most set in the country.  I don't see any indications Pryor will pull out, while Republican candidate Tom Cotton is acceptable to both the establishment and Tea Party wings of the Republican Party.  Pryor is widely considered to be the most vulnerable incumbent running for reelection. His personal numbers are generally underwater, and Arkansas has taken a hard Republican turn in the last few years Most polls have a 3 point or less difference between the two, despite Cotton's much lower name recognition.  Pryor's trying to distance himself as much as possible from the national Democratic Party.  If I had to choose a winner tomorrow, I would project Cotton to win, as I expect he'll have a much easier time than Pryor picking up the undecideds.  Still, Pryor can't be counted out.

(2/6/14) Rasmussen has Cotton up 5.

(2/20/14) An Impact Management poll has Cotton leading Pryor by 4.

(3/10/14) Hickman Analytics has a new poll out.  With 3rd-party candidates included, Pryor leads by 3 among all respondents, while Cotton leads by 2 among definite voters.  Without 3rd-party candidates, Pryor ties among all respondents and Cotton leads by 9 among definite voters.

(4/8/14) Talk Business / Hendrix College has Pryor leading Cotton by 3, 46 to 43.

(4/10/14) Opinion Research Associates has Pryor up 10.  Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical too.

(4/15/14) For what it's worth, a DSCC poll also has Pryor up 3.

(4/15/14) Cotton raised $1.35 million last quarter.

(4/6/14) Pryor, $1.2 million.

(4/24/14) I should probably discuss the New York Times poll that just came out.  Nate Cohn has a good piece about some of its flaws.  On top of Cohn's criticisms, I'd note - with some trepidation, given that 'unskewing' is usually a bad idea - the poll's bizarre sample (h/t Bill Kristol).  Just under a third of respondents didn't vote in 2012, meaning they're most likely not going to vote in 2014.  26% of the sample voted for Obama, to 27% for Romney (actual 2012 results were 60% Romney, 37% Obama).  I'm usually pretty cautious about questioning samples, but this one is wildly wrong.  That being said, we do have other polls suggesting Pryor tied or leading, and I think it's accurate to say Pryor now has a small lead.

(4/30/14) Magellan Strategies (R) has Cotton leading by 3.

(4/30/14) PPP has Cotton trailing by 1, with both candidates not terribly well-liked, while undecided voters really don't like Obama.

(5/12/14) NBC/Marist has Pryor leading by 11;  unlike the NYT poll, there aren't immediately obvious major flaws with this one.

(5/30/14) On the other hand, Rasmussen has Cotton leading by 4.

(6/11/14) A poll for the pro-Cotton Government Integrity Fund has him leading by 8.

(6/12/14) Magellan has Cotton leading by 4.

(7/10/14) The Republican Impact Management Group also has Cotton up 4.

(7/14/14) Cotton outraised Pryor for I believe the fourth straight quarter, this time by a very impressive $800,000.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Cotton leading Pryor by 4.

(7/31/14) A couple new polls are out.  Talk Business has Cotton leading by 2, Anzalone Liszt Grove Research has Pryor up 2, and a Pryor internal has him up 6.

(8/5/14) PPP has Cotton leading by 2.

(8/27/14) Rasmussen has Pryor up 1.

(9/5/14) CNN/ORC has Cotton up 2.

(9/6/14) Hickman has Pryor leading by 2.

(9/7/14) NBC/Marist, which in May had Pryor up 11, now have Pryor and Cotton tied, with Cotton leading by 5 among likely voters.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cotton up 4.

(9/22/14) Hickman for the DSCC has Pryor up 3.

(9/23/14) PPP has Cotton up 5 with third parties included and up 6 without them.

(9/24/14) Suffolk University / USA Today has Pryor up 2.

(9/26/14) Rasmussen has Cotton up 7.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cotton up 4.

(10/8/14) Cotton raised almost $4 million last quarter.

(10/8/14) FOX News has Cotton up 7.  Leans R.

(10/16/14) Cotton raised almost twice as much as Pryor last quarter, and has almost three times as much cash on hand.

(10/20/14) Talk Business / Hendrix College has Cotton up 8.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cotton up 5.

(10/26/14) NBC/Marist has Cotton up 2.

(10/30/14) The University of Arkansas Fayetteville Arkansas Poll has Cotton up 13.  That's a little high, but not too far out of the direction this race has been headed.

(10/30/14) Rasmussen has Cotton up 7.

(11/1/14) PPP has Cotton up 8 with third parties and up 6 without them.

Colorado Tossup Incumbent Mark Udall (D)

(12/21/13) Udall has suddenly found himself much more vulnerable than he was originally expected to be. His approval rating has taken a big hit and is now around even with his disapproval, while a 15-point lead against 2010 Republican Senate nominee Ken Buck from June 2012 is now down to low single digits.  As in many races around the country, Republicans' biggest problem is a weak field of candidates, including Buck, State Rep. Amy Stephens, State Sens. Owen Hill and Randy Baumgardner, and businessmen Jaime McMillan and Mark Aspiri.  The weakness of the Republicans means Udall is relatively safe, but if Udall's troubles manage to convince a stronger candidate like Rep. Cory Gardner or former Rep. Bob Beauprez to enter, this will quickly become competitive.

(2/6/14) Udall is stuck in the mid- and low-forties in Quinnipiac's newest poll, and leads Buck by 3, Baumgardner by 2, Stephens by 2, Hill by 5, and McMillan by 7.  Colorado has been pretty clearly moving right this cycle, and I think Leans D would more accurately reflect the state of the race.  That said, Buck is definitely a suboptimal candidate, and it'd have to take a pretty big Republican wave to win him this race, given his failure in the last one.

(2/11/14) Interesting ... the Tea Party Express is endorsing Hill.

(2/26/14) Big news.  The Republicans are pulling a bit of a candidate switch.  Gardner will run, Buck is out (to run for Gardner's seat), and reports are Stephens is also out.  This is now a Tossup/Adv. Udall.  As I've been saying here, much of what has been keeping Republicans down in this race has been the lack of a decent candidate.  Gardner provides that, while Buck's leaving the race makes it much more likely he'll win the primary.  It's possible Gardner could still be upset in the primary (though I don't think that's too likely as Hill and Baumgardner lack both poll standing and fundraising), but for now, this is a big coup for Colorado Republicans.

(2/28/14) McMillan is also out, but not everyone is happy with Gardner: the Tea Party Express is still backing Hill.

(3/10/14) The first post-Gardner-entrance poll is out.  Rasmussen has him trailing Udall 41-42.

(3/13/14) Another poll - though pre-Gardner - has Udall vulnerable.  Hickman Analytics has him up 4 on Buck among likely voters and up 3 among definite voters.

(3/18/14) Hill out, leaving Baumgardner as Gardner's only semi-significant primary opposition.  Meanwhile, PPP's results show a close race - Udall's favorability is very narrowly positive at 41/40, and he leads Gardner 42/40.  Gardner is pretty safe in the primary, leading Baumgardner 44 to 15.

(3/19/14) Harper has Udall leading Gardner 45-44.

(3/21/14) Baumgardner is staying in the race.  In lighter news, his mustache now has its own Twitter account

(4/7/14) Udall raised $2 million in Q1.

(4/10/14) And Gardner raised a very good $1.4 million.

(4/13/14) Gardner won the Republican nomination outright this weekend at the Republican state assembly (he was the only candidate to make the ballot).

(4/23/14) A poll for the (pro-Gardner) Chamber of Commerce has Udall trailing by 2.

(4/24/14) Quinnipiac has Udall leading by 1.

(4/30/14) Magellan Strategies has Udall leading by 3.

(7/1/14) Rasmussen has Udall leading by 1.

(7/11/14) Gardner raised $2.7 million last quarter.

(7/14/14) But Udall topped that with $3.1 million raised.

(7/15/14) NBC/Marist break the mold a little bit with a poll that has Udall up 7.

(7/16/14) And Gravis has Gardner up 4.

(7/17/14) Quinnipiac has him up 2.

(7/22/14) PPP has Udall leading by 1.  Notably, Udall's approval is 11 points underwater.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Udall leading Gardner by 4.

(9/5/14) Rasmussen has Udall leading by 2.

(9/7/14) NBC/Marist has Udall up 6.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Udall up 3.

(9/12/14) SurveyUSA has Udall up 4.

(9/18/14) In a departure from recent numbers, Quinnipiac has Gardner up 8 with Independent candidate Steve Shogan included and up 10 without him.  One reason for the jump - this is Quinnipiac's first poll of the race of likely voters, though even with that this seems a bit of an outlier.  USA Today / Suffolk has Gardner up 1.

(9/21/14) Gravis has Gardner up 7.

(9/25/14) PPP has Gardner up 2.

(10/1/14) Rasmussen has Gardner up 1.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Udall up 3.

(10/8/14) FOX News has Gardner up 6.

(10/10/14) Gardner has more than $1 million more left in cash-on-hand than Udall.

(10/11/14) Gardner has been endorsed by the Denver Post.

(10/13/14) High Point University / SurveyUSA has Gardner up 4.

(10/13/14) While SurveyUSA for the Denver Post has him up 2.

(10/15/14) CNN/ORC has Gardner up 4.

(10/16/14) Quinnipiac has Gardner up 6.

(10/21/14) PPP has Gardner up 3 both with and without third parties.

(10/22/14) Monmouth University has Gardner up 1.

(10/22/14) USA Today / Suffolk has Gardner up 7.

(10/22/14) A Reuters/Ipsos online poll has Gardner up 2.

(10/24/14) Quinnipiac has Gardner up 6.

(10/25/14) Udall's internal poll has him up 1.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Udall up 1.

(10/26/14) NBC/Marist has Gardner up 1.

(10/27/14) Rasmussen has Gardner up 6, and with 51% of the vote.

(10/30/14) Quinnipiac has Gardner up 7 with 7% for Independent Steve Shogan, and up 8 without Shogan.

(10/31/14) The Denver Post has Gardner up 2, while PPP for LCV has the race tied.

(11/1/14) YouGov has Gardner up 2.

(11/2/14) PPP has Gardner up 3 both with and without third parties, while Quinnipiac has him up 2.

Delaware Safe D Incumbent Chris Coons (D)

(12/21/13) Coons is in little danger.  The Republican bench basically consists of Christine O'Donnell (no explanation needed there) and Tom Kovach, who just lost a statewide congressional race by thirty points.

(5/23/14) And it probably won't be O'Donnell.

(6/5/14) O'Donnell out.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Coons up 13.

(9/26/14) The University of Delaware has Coons up 27.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Coons up 16.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Coons up 18.

Georgia Leans R Incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) (Retiring)

(12/21/13) Georgia is still pretty hostile territory for Democrats, though a couple of developments in this race make it a potential target.  First, they have a solid candidate in philanthropist Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, who has already proved an excellent fundraiser.  Second, the Republican primary is huge and will probably be brutal.  There are eight candidates, most of whom have at least the possibility of being competitive: three sitting Reps. (Jack Kingston, Phil Gingrey, and Paul Broun), two businessmen with the ability to self-fund (David Perdue and Eugene Yu), former state Secretary of State Karen Handel, activist Derrick Grayson, and attorney Art Gardner.  This looks almost certain to end in a runoff, meaning Republicans will be primarily attacking each other until the end of July.  If there's going to be another Todd Akin-style candidate this cycle, it'll probably happen here.  Broun and Gingrey have topped the primary in the last two poll, and both have made comments in the past that have Republicans worried.

(1/28/14) I can't believe I haven't written about this in a month.  Anyway, Kingston is making a big ad buy, to the tune of $1.3 million.

(2/3/14) Well, all the quarter four fundraising reports are out.  Nunn blew away all the Republicans, with $1.6 million raised compared to almost $900,000 for the best Republican, Kingston.  Perdue brought in $750,000, including a $500,000 personal loan.  Gingrey brought in the least, at just $137,000, but he still has well over $2 million cash on hand.  Handel and Broun are in the worst position, with low fundraising barely or not even covering fourth quarter spending, and low cash on hand.

(2/4/14) Gingrey is ahead in a new poll for Citizens United (which supports Broun).  The results are Gingrey 19, Handel 14, Broun 13, Kingston 11, and Perdue 8.  Meanwhile, in another headache for the establishment, Broun (and Grayson and Yu) said they would vote to impeach Obama if given the chance, which should be very popular among some of the base.  Even though most of those elements are probably already backing Broun, as I've mentioned before, in a field as big as this one any candidate doesn't need too much support to win a spot in the runoff.  Meanwhile, it looks like some of the more mainstream candidates are ceding the right to Broun - Gingrey recently admitted in an interview that Broun was more conservative than he was.

(2/11/14) Broun has been endorsed by the Madison Project.

(2/24/14) Yu out, to run for the House instead.

(3/4/14) The Susan B. Anthony List is endorsing Handel.

(3/10/14) A new poll by PPP for Better Georgia has Broun leading the Republican primary by 13 points.

(3/20/14) On the other hand, SurveyUSA has Perdue and Kingston leading, with 29 and 19, respectively, with Broun, Gingrey, and Handel down at 10%-12%.

(3/21/14) The sample in the SurveyUSA poll is more moderate, independent, and non-white than the actual primary electorate, which is probably artificially inflating Kingston, and Perdue's support by a decent amount.

(3/27/14) Sarah Palin is endorsing Handel.

(3/29/14) Two more polls sort of corroborate the SurveyUSA findings.  Perdue doesn't have such a big lead, but he is on top, with Kingston second and Broun third.  Landmark/Rosetta Stone has 21% for Perdue, 15% each for Kingston and Broun, 13% for Gingrey, and 10% for Handel.  In the same order of candidates, InsiderAdvantage has 17/15/10/8/5.

(4/3/14) Bad gaffe by Perdue: attacking Handel for not having a college degree.

(4/9/14) The American Future Fund is supporting Handel.

(4/19/14) Both Gingrey and Broun are continuing to have fundraising difficulties, with both raising over $300,000, though again this is a worse problem for Broun, as he has only a couple hundred thousand dollars cash on hand, whereas Gingrey has a couple million.  Kingston, meanwhile, reportedly raised $1.1 million, so no problem there.

(4/14/14) Nunn, meanwhile, raised $2.4 million.

(4/16/14) Perdue raised $600,000.

(4/18/14) Kingston gets the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce.  Whether that comes with money isn't yet clear.  Meanwhile, InsiderAdvantage puts the field at Perdue/Kingston/Handel/Broun/Gingrey with 19/15/13/11/9.

(4/24/14) RedState's Erick Erickson is endorsing Handel.  As David Freddoso points out, the endorsement itself probably isn't that big of a deal, but it might signify trouble for Broun, whose constituency Erickson sort of fits in.

(4/29/14) SurveyUSA has Perdue with 26%, Kingston with 20%, Handel with 15%, and Broun with 13%.  Nunn runs away with the Democratic primary, with 57% to 13% for Steen Miles, 7% for Todd Robinson, and 5% for Branko Radulovacki.  Meanwhile, the Chamber of Commerce is putting up ads for Kingston.

(5/1/14) InsiderAdvantage has Perdue 22, Handel 21, Kingston 17, Broun 14, Gingrey 12.

(5/2/14) Kingston says his internal poll has him leading with 20 to 17 for Perdue, 14 for Handel, 13 for Gingrey, and 8 for Broun.

(5/6/14) Handel has been endorsed by the Tea Party Express.

(5/8/14) The Washington Post has a good piece on the primary here - my only quibble is with them seeming to lump Handel in with Gingrey and Broun.  While her poor fundraising is a concern for the general election, she's not a gaffe-prone loose cannon, to my knowledge.

(5/9/14) April fundraising reports are in, with not too much different from the usual.  Nunn is still raising huge money with $840,000 raised (remember, this is one month, not three).  Kingston and Perdue had pretty good hauls ($290,000 for Kingston, $220,000 plus $1 million self-funding for Perdue), while Handel's, Broun's and Gingrey's were fairly poor ($135,000, $140,000, and $75,000, respectively).

(5/9/14) InsiderAdvantage has Perdue 26, Handel 18, Kingston 17, Broun 12, Gingrey 11.

(5/11/14) Some fairly surprising results out of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, with solid leads for Nunn at or close to 50% of the vote.  She leads Gingrey by 15, Broun by 13, Kingston by 10, Handel by 9, and Perdue by 1.  Against Gingrey she takes 50%; against Handel, Broun and Kingston, 48%; and against Perdue, 45%.

(5/12/14) NBC/Marist shows a much closer race, in line with most previous polling.  Nunn is in the low forties and trails Perdue by 4 and Broun by 1, ties Kingston, and leads Gingrey by 2 and Handel by 3.  In the Republican primary, both likely and potential voters give Perdue 23%, Kingston 17-18%, Handel 13-14%, Broun 10-11%, and Gingrey 9-11%.  Perdue's also in a good position in the runoff, with a big lead as the second choice of voters.  Estimating (in a totally unscientific manner) from the first-choice/second-choice numbers, Perdue should start the runoff with a pretty big lead, say 10-20 points.

(5/15/14) Three new polls, with pretty similar primary results: SurveyUSA / InsiderAdvantage / St. Leo University: Perdue 27/27/26; Kingston 19/19/16; Handel 16/17/15; Broun 10/10/13; Gingrey 10/9/8.  St. Leo also surveyed the general and found Nunn trailing Perdue by 4 and leading Kingston and Handel by 1, Broun by 4, and Gingrey by 6; aand had a big lead in the primary according to SurveyUSA.

(5/16/14) Rick Santorum is endorsing Handel.

(5/16/14) Politico has a nice write-up on the primary here.

(5/20/14) Last-minute poll: InsiderAdvantage has Perdue 26%, Handel 17.4%, Kingston 16.7%, Gingrey 11%, and Broun 10%.

(5/21/14) It's Kingston 26%, Perdue 31%, for the runoff.  I haven't seen any runoff polls, though as I said a few entries up Perdue probably starts out with a lead (probably not 10-20 points, though).  Kingston should be helped by a perception that he's the more conservative of the two, meaning Handel, Broun, and Gingrey supporters (like, say, Erick Erickson) might be more likely to back him.  Nunn easily won the Democratic primary, but her best hopes of winning went down last night with Broun and Gingrey.  Nunn's probably done all she can to put herself in a good position, but I don't see her winning absent serious Republican screwups.

(5/23/14) It looks like Kingston is snapping up the majority of the defeated candidates' supporters.  PPP has him leading Perdue by 12, powered by a 24-point lead among very conservative voters.  In the general, Kingston trails Nunn by 6 according to Rasmussen and ties her according to PPP; they have Perdue trailing by 3 and 2 points, respectively.

(5/28/14) Handel's endorsing Kingston - though, as DKElections points out, it's not all that surprising.

(5/31/14) A couple more Kingston endorsers: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Reps. Lynn Westmoreland and Tom Price.

(6/4/14) Gingrey is endorsing Kingston.

(6/6/14) Another endorser for Kingston: Rep. Rob Woodall.  This is now, by Wikipedia's count, the eighth big new endorsement for Kingston, with none for Perdue.

(6/7/14) SurveyUSA has Kingston leading Perdue 52-41 in the runoff.  In the general, Nunn trails Kingston by 6 and Perdue by 5.

(6/10/14) Kingston's internal has him leading by 14 in the runoff.

(6/13/14) The NRA is endorsing Kingston.

(6/13/14) InsiderAdvantage has Kingston leading by 11 in the runoff.

(6/26/14) Perdue's internal has him leading by 1 in the runoff.

(7/11/14) Both Perdue and Kingston raised about $1.6 million last quarter (including $500,000 in self-funding from Perdue).  Meanwhile, Perdue's internal might not have been too off - InsiderAdvantage has Kingston leading by less than 1 point.

(7/13/14) CWA PAC is spending $1 million against Kingston.

(7/15/14) In a poll for the Democratic group Better Georgia, PPP has Kingston leading Perdue by 6.  In the general, Nunn leads Kingston by 3 and Perdue by 7.

(7/15/14) Nunn raised $3.45 million last quarter.

(7/18/14) InsiderAdvantage has Kingston beating Perdue by 5.

(7/20/14) Landmark Communications has Kingston leading Perdue by 7 points; in the general Nunn beats Perdue by 5 and Kingston by 8.

(7/23/14) Well, Perdue beat the polls and won a (pretty narrow) victory.  Unlike many GOP primaries this year, this runoff at least didn't have one candidate appreciably worse than the other for the general (the primary itself, of course, was a different story).  Perdue should start out as a solid favorite in the general.

(7/26/14) Rasmussen has Perdue up 6.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll also has Perdue up 6.

(7/29/14) In contrast, Landmark Communications has Nunn leading by 3.  I think Rasmussen and NYT's results are more accurate.

(7/30/14) Vox Populi has Perdue leading by 9.

(8/5/14) National Republicans are taking this race seriously.  They're putting up $2.5 million in ads.

(8/21/14) InsiderAdvantage has Perdue winning by 7.

(8/23/14) Two new, contradictory poll results.  SurveyUSA is in line with the majority in having Perdue up by high single digits - 9 points.  Landmark Communications (again) has Nunn beating Perdue, this time by 7.

(9/3/14) WRBL has Nunn winning by 2.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Perdue up 6.

(9/10/14) SurveyUSA has Perdue up 3.

(9/13/14) The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has Perdue up 4.

(9/13/14) InsiderAdvantage has Perdue up 10.

(9/15/14) Landmark Communications has Nunn up 3.

(9/18/14) Rasmussen has Perdue up 5.

(9/24/14) SurveyUSA has Perdue up 1.

(10/4/14) InsiderAdvantage has Perdue up 4.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov also has Perdue up 4.

(10/7/14) PPP has Perdue up 3 without Libertarian Amanda Swafford, and up 2 with her.

(10/9/14) WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA has Perdue up 1.

(10/13/14) Some good news for Nunn this morning: She raised over $4 million last quarter, and Landmark has her tied with Perdue.

(10/14/14) Then Perdue's fundraising comes down - almost $5 million including $500,000 in self-funding.

(10/15/14) SurveyUSA has Nunn up 3.

(10/15/14) The DSCC is putting up $1 million in ads.

(10/16/14) Hm.  WRBL has Nunn up 1.  This race is more competitive than I expected, but thanks to Georgia's election law, I'm keeping it Leans R.  If no candidate gets 50% or greater, the race goes to a runoff, scheduled about two months after the election.  This seems to experience pretty severe Democratic drop-off; the last time it happened, in 2008 for this seat, Saxby Chambliss' 3-point victory turned into a 15-point victory in the runoff.  That's a bit of an extreme example because of Obama's presence on the top of the ticket (as the electorate this year is expected to be more Republican, the drop-off should be less severe), but even so, it suggests that even if Nunn wins the first round, Perdue should be favored in the runoff.  It doesn't look very likely Nunn will be able to avoid a runoff.

(10/22/14) SurveyUSA has Nunn up 2.  She's probably in a better position than she's been in the entire race, but I'll keep this Leans R unless it looks like she's going to win outright.

(10/23/14) InsiderAdvantage has Nunn up 2.

(10/24/14) CNN/ORC has Nunn up 3.

(10/24/14) The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has Perdue up 2.

(10/25/14) Landmark Communications has the race tied.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Perdue up 3.

(10/28/14) PPP for LCV has the race tied, while SurveyUSA for WXIA-TV has Perdue up 3.

(10/29/14) Monmouth has Perdue up 8.

(10/31/14) Landmark has the race tied, while Vox Populi for the pro-Perdue Ending Spending has Perdue up 5.

(11/1/14) YouGov has Perdue up 2.

(11/2/14) NBC/Marist has Perdue up 4.  Looks like Republicans have things back under control.

(11/3/14) WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA has Perdue up 3.

(11/3/14) Landmark/WSB-TV has Perdue up 4, while InsiderAdvantage has him up 3.

(11/3/14) PPP has Perdue up 1 with the Libertarian included and the race tied without her.

Hawaii (special) Safe D Incumbent Brian Schatz (D)

It's a midterm without quasi-native son Obama on the ballot, so things should be marginally easier for the Hawaii GOP.  But their preferred candidate last race lost by 25 points, so they'll need a lot more than "marginally better".  The most prominent potential Republican seems to be former Rep. Charles Djou, who performed quite respectably in three elections against Rep. Colleen Hanabusa.

(4/23/13) Politico this morning is reporting that Hanabusa is planning to run for Senate.  Sit back and watch the show.

(4/23/13) According to this, Hanabusa leads Schatz by 22 with 54% in a primary.  It's worth noting that Djou might run for his old first district seat with Hanabusa out of the way.

(5/26/13) Upon further refelction, I'm moving this to Safe D.

(6/17/13) Schatz has won the support of the important Hawaii Government Employees Association union, continuing a string of victories in the 'invisible primary' for donors and endorsements.

(7/1/2013) Schatz leads Hanabusa by 3 in this new poll.

(7/2/13) EMILY's List counters with one showing Hanabusa up by 11.  Assuming standard internal poll bias (usually about 6 points in favor of your guy), the race (between these two) is still a tossup.

(7/22/13) For what it's worth, Schatz has been endorsed by Al Gore.

(7/29/13) E-mails have surfaced suggesting possible illegal coordination between Hanabusa's campaign and the drug lobby PhRMA.

(8/8/13) Hanabusa's deputy Chief of Staff has resigned in the scandal.

(8/11/13) Posted without comment.

(10/14/13) Schatz has continued a holding a solid fundraising lead over Hanabusa this quarter.

(10/23/13) The polls, however, are extremely close - Hanabusa leads by, and both have support in the 30s.

(11/17/13) Politico says Djou is going to announce soon.

(12/30/13) In his 2014 predictions, Tom Davis thinks Republicans will take this seat.  His argument is fairly convincing: late, bitter Dem primary, split along racial lines that could break to Djou's advantage; Obama not on the ballot.  I could see this happening, particularly if Hanabusa loses.  As far as I know, Hawaii politics is fairly racialized, and I suppose it's possible a white Democrat could lose to an Asian Republican after defeating an Asian Democrat in the primary.  Still it's worth pointing out that something similar has happened before.  In the 2010 governor's race, Neil Abercrombie defeated Mufi Hannemann in the Democratic primary, then beat Republican James Aiona by 17 points in the general.  These examples aren't directly comparable (the primary, I think, was much less hard-fought and Hannemann is of Pacific Islander descent), but I think it suggests that even if everything falls into place, Djou will still have a tough time.

(1/2/14) Here's the Washington Post on the subject.

(2/16/14) The Hawaii poll has Hanabusa leading Schatz by 8, while a Schatz internal has him up by 4.

(2/26/14) Another good WaPo piece on the primary.

(3/13/14) Djou's running for the House again.  Republicans can kiss any theoretical hope of taking this seat goodbye.

(3/31/14) Obama is endorsing Schatz.

(4/18/14) Schatz again outraised Hanabusa.

(5/27/14) Civil Beat has Schatz leading Hanabusa by 5.

(7/5/14) Schatz has been endorsed by former Gov. John Waihee.

(7/14/14) Hanabusa raised $700,000 in Q2, plus $120,000 in self-funding.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Hanabusa and Schatz beating Republican former State Rep. Cam Cavasso by 40 and 36 respectively.

(8/2/14) The Civil Beat has Schatz up 8.

(8/4/14) And the Star-Advertiser has Hanabusa up 8.

(8/18/14) Schatz very narrowly won, and can expect an easy race against Cavasso.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Schatz up 35.

(9/15/14) Rasmussen has Schatz up 32.

(9/23/14) The Honolulu Civil Beat has Schatz up 37.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Schatz up 54(!).

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Schatz up 52.

(10/28/14) The Civil Beat has Schatz up 26.

Idaho Safe R Incumbent Jim Risch (R)

(12/21/13) Like almost all Republican incumbent Senators this cycle, Risch has nothing to worry about in the general election.  Unlike many races this cycle, the primary should also be pretty quiet.

(3/15/14) The filing deadline is past, with no significant primary opposition for Risch.

(6/3/14) Rasmussen has Risch leading his Democratic opponent, attorney Nels Mitchell, by 25 points.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Risch up 34.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Risch up 34 again.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Risch up 37.

(10/15/14) PPP has Risch up 18.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Risch up 31.

Illinois Safe D Incumbent Dick Durbin (D)

(12/21/13) Durbin isn't in any trouble in this heavily Democratic state.  Businessman and State Senator Jim Oberweis is the favorite for the Republican nomination, but will probably just add this race to his long list of statewide losses.  Businessman Doug Truax and blogger William Lee are also running for the Republican nomination, but even if they win it, they shouldn't perform any better than Oberweis would.

(3/18/14) Primary night: Oberweis is the nominee, for all that it matters.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Durbin leading Oberweis by 8.  This is closer than I expected, but still Safe D.

(9/1/14) Hm.  We Ask America has Durbin up 7, but I'm still not changing the rating.  If I recall correctly, they have a history of results that are overly optimistic for Republicans.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Durbin up 12.

(9/15/14) The Chicago Tribune has Durbin up 23.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Durbin again up 12.

(10/24/14) The Chicago Tribune has Durbin up 14.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Durbin up 13.

(10/30/14) The Chicago Sun-Times has Durbin up 10.

(11/2/14) PPP has Durbin up 10 with Libertarian Sharon Hansen included, and up 8 without her.

Iowa Tossup Incumbent Tom Harkin (D) (Retiring)

(12/21/13) Republicans should have a shot at the first open seat in Iowa for decades, but their problem is a familiar one: a big primary field of weak candidates.  This one includes State Sen. Joni Ernst, energy executive Mark Jacobs, attorney Paul Lunde, talk radio host and economics professor Sam Clovis, car salesman Scott Schaben, former US Attorney Matt Whitaker, and Chuck Grassley Chief of Staff David Young.  Meanwhile, Rep. Bruce Braley has the Democratic nomination wrapped up and is raising plenty of money.  The race has recently become closer thanks to the current national Democratic troubles, but Braley still has a solid edge.  Adding to Republican woes, if no candidate receives more than 35% percent of the vote in the primary (a likely occurrence if no frontrunner emerges), the nominee will be selected by a convention, where Ron Paul allies (not the most politically pragmatic people) will have a lot of influence. One thing to keep an eye on: Jacobs has the ability to self-fund, which along with the rest of the field's weak fundraising, could allow him to dominate the primary airwar enough to emerge as a frontrunner and possibly win the nomination outright.

(1/2/14) Young out.

(1/28/14) Vander Plaats says he'll decide by Feb. 15th.  Theiowarepublican has a good piece here.

(1/30/14) Vander Plaats says he's leaning towards a run.

(1/30/14) Jacobs raised almost $1 million last quarter.

(2/15/14) Vander Plaats out.  I consider Jacobs the frontrunner by dint of fundraising.

(2/18/14) A Jacobs internal poll has him leading Braley by 1, and leading the primary field by 11.  These numbers are quite believable, given the national climate and the fact that he's been the only Republican so far to put up ads.  If he's ahead at this point, it's hard to see how the rest of the field catches up to him, because, again, fundraising.  As for the general, I'll leave it Leans D for now.  PPP should be out with a poll this week or next.  I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers like this in their results, and if there are, I would probably make this race a Tossup.  Of course, Jacobs doesn't just need to win the primary, he has to get 35% or more of the vote.

(2/25/14) PPP has Jacobs leading the Republican primary with 20%, 7 ahead of Ernst, and trails Braley by 6 points in the general, 41-35.  I'm very close to making this a Tossup, but would like to see Jacobs at least close to avoiding a convention before I do so.

(3/5/14) Mitt Romney is endorsing Ernst.

(3/13/14) Never mind, maybe.  Quinnipiac has Braley leading Jacobs by 9, and Ernst by 13.

(3/26/14) Video has surfaced of Braley telling donors that "farmer from Iowa who never went to law school" Chuck Grassley would become Senate Judiciary Chair if Republicans take back the Senate.  Some Republicans are saying this is a Todd Akin-level gaffe.  I don't think it comes close, but Grassley is the most popular politician in Iowa, and didn't seem very happy over what Braley said.  Meanwhile, Ernst is receiving a lot of attention for this ad.

(3/27/14) Sarah Palin is endorsing Ernst; Rasmussen has Braley leading Ernst and Jacobs by 3, Whitaker by 4, and Clovis by 13; and Republicans are already up with ads hitting Braley over the 'farmer from Iowa' statement.

(4/4/14) Deb Fischer is endorsing and campaigning for Ernst.

(4/9/14) Suffolk has Ernst and Jacobs effectively tied at the top of the primary, with 25% and 23% respectively, and Schaben, Clovis, and Whitaker in single digits.  In the general, Braley leads Clovis and Schaben by 13, Whitaker by 11, Ernst by 8, and Jacobs by 6.  Still edge of Tossup, with weak Republican fundraising and the possibility of a convention the biggest concerns.

(4/11/14) Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican has some important methodological and other concerns about the Suffolk poll.

(4/11/14) Braley raised $1.25 million in Q1.

(4/15/14) Loras College has Jacobs with 19%, Ernst with 18%,  Clovis with 7%, and Whitaker and Schaben with roughly 4% each.

(4/16/14) Sarah Palin is campaigning with Ernst.

(4/18/14) Jacobs raised $1.4 million last quarter (mostly in self-funding), but spent most of it, leaving him and Ernst almost tied in cash on hand at around $400,000 each.

(4/25/14) The Senate Conservatives Fund is endorsing Ernst.

(4/26/14) Establishment Republicans have retaken control of the state party, which should be helpful in winning this seat.

(4/28/14) Hm. A Daily Caller / Vox Populi poll has Braley leading a generic Republican by 1, 42-41.

(4/29/14) Rick Perry is endorsing Whitaker.

(4/30/14) Magellan Strategies for the Liberty Foundation has Jacobs leading by 1.

(5/5/14) Marco Rubio is endorsing Ernst.

(5/8/14) Hickman Analytics has Braley leading Jacobs by 1 and Ernst by 4.  There have been enough polls showing this race close, so I'm moving it to Tossup/Adv. Braley.

(5/14/14) Ernst has been endorsed by both the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce.

(5/15/14) Loras College now has Ernst with a decent lead in the primary, 12 points over Jacobs, but still under 35%.  Meanwhile, Clovis has been endorsed by Rick Santorum.

(5/19/14) The Des Moines Register is endorsing Ernst in the primary.

(5/21/14) PPP has Ernst at 34% in the primary, with 18% for Jacobs, 14% for Clovis, and 6% for Whitaker.  In the general, Braley leads Clovis by 9, Whitaker by 7, and Jacobs and Ernst both by 6.

(5/27/14) Jacobs is self-funding another $1.5 million, while Ernst has finally picked up fundraising, with a little over $400,000 the last month-and-a-half.

(6/1/14) First poll with Ernst above 35%: the Des Moines Register has Ernst 36%, Jacobs 18%, Whitaker 13%, Clovis 11%.

(6/4/14) Ernst won the primary by a surprising margin, with 56% of the vote.  Still Adv. Braley, but this is definitely very competitive.  One thing to watch: Ernst's fundraising.  With the exception of the half-quarter from April 1 to May 14, Braley outraised Ernst 4 to 5 times each quarter, and as of May 14 had about 7 times as much cash on hand.

(6/4/14) In the first post-primary poll, Rasmussen has Ernst leading by 1.

(6/6/14) Hm.  Loras College has Ernst leading by 6, which seems a little high.  Still Adv. Braley, unless there are a couple more polls with a similar result.

(6/9/14) Vox Populi has Ernst leading by 5.

(6/18/14) Quinnipiac has Braley leading by 4, a more believable result than Loras or Vox Populi.

(7/8/14) Another farmer-related gaffe from Braley.

(7/16/14) NBC/Marist has them tied.

(7/17/14) Ernst had a fairly impressive fundraising quarter (particularly given her earlier struggles), with $1.8 million raised, just ahead of Braley's $1.7 million.

(7/22/14) Gravis has Braley leading by 1.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Ernst by 1.

(8/26/14) PPP has Braley leading by 1 if third parties are included and tying if they aren't.  Pure Tossup.

(8/27/14) USA Today/Suffolk has the race tied.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Braley up 2.

(9/8/14) Loras College has Braley up 4.

(9/12/14) ORC has Braley up 1.

(9/17/14) Quinnipiac, on their first poll with a likely voter screen, has Ernst up 6.

(9/18/14) FOX News has the race tied.

(9/19/14) Rasmussen also has it tied.

(9/28/14) The Des Moines Register has Ernst up 6.

(9/28/14) Hm.  The DSCC is now touting an internal that has Braley tying Ernst.

(9/30/14) PPP has Ernst up 2 both with and without third parties.  Tossup/Adv. Ernst.

(10/1/14) Ernst seriously outraised Braley last quarter - $4.5 million to $2.8 million.

(10/2/14) Gravis stretches the limits of plausibility by having  Ernst up 9 while Gov. Branstad is up 8. Another Democratic internal has Braley up 1.

(10/5/14) NBC/Marist has Ernst up 2.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Braley up 1.

(10/6/14) Loras College has the race tied.

(10/10/14) Turns out Ernst actually raised over $6 million last quarter.

(10/12/14) The Des Moines Register now has Ernst up 1.

(10/13/14) Rasmussen has Ernst up 3.

(10/15/14) Quinnipiac has Ernst up 2.

(10/15/14) USAToday/Suffolk has Ernst up 4.

(10/23/14) Quinnipiac has Ernst again up 2, while Monmouth has her up 1.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has the race tied.

(10/26/14) NBC/Marist has Ernst up 3.

(10/28/14) Loras College has Braley up 1.

(10/29/14) Quinnipiac has Ernst up 4.

(10/29/14) Braley's internal has the race tied.

(10/31/14) Ipsos has the race tied.

(10/31/14) Rasmussen has Ernst up 1.

(11/1/14) CNN/ORC has Ernst up 2, while FOX News has her up 1.

(11/1/14) YouGov has Braley up 1.

(11/1/14) The Des Moines Register has Ernst up 7.

(11/2/14) Quinnipiac has the race tied.

(11/3/14) PPP has Ernst up 3 both with and without third parties.

Kansas Tossup Incumbent Pat Roberts (R) (Running)

(12/21/13) The Democrats are a non-factor here, but the primary could be exciting.  Roberts is facing a Tea Party challenge from radiologist and columnist Milton Wolf, who is also a distant cousin of President Obama. Roberts should start out well ahead of Wolf.

(2/9/14) Bad news for Roberts: the New York Times is reporting that Roberts doesn't have a home in Kansas - his voting address is owned by a couple of longtime donors who let him stay in their house when he's in the state.  Wolf is already making an issue of this.  The comparisons to Richard Lugar are already coming out.  I think those are a little premature - there were plenty of things about Lugar for Tea Partiers to take issue with, aside from residency issues - but I do think this is definitely a big deal.

(2/21/14) Some good and bad news for Roberts in PPP's new poll.  The good news is that for now he has a fairly solid lead over Wolf, 49-23.  The bad news for him is that it looks like there's room for Wolf to improve his standing.  His name recognition is low at 24%, and Roberts appears vulnerable over residency; respondents said - albeit by a small margin - that Roberts didn't spend enough time in Kansas and was more interested in being a DC insider than representing Kansas.

(2/23/14) I think this outweighs the Roberts residency issue.

(2/26/14) Now Wolf is dealing with allegations of price-fixing against his employer.

(2/28/14) Democrat Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor is running; meanwhile, the Tea Party Express is endorsing Wolf.

(4/15/14) Roberts raised $500,000 last quarter.

(4/16/14) Hm.  Freshly-out-of-a-job former HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is thinking about running for this seat.  She was at one time a fairly popular governor with two successful statewide elections under her belt,  but she's been damaged, perhaps seriously, by her role in Obamacare.  It's hard to gauge how much residual popularity she has thanks to a lack of polling.  February last year, she was at 44-47 favorability, but it dropped to 38-55 this February in the wake of the Obamacare rollout.  She might be a stronger candidate than Taylor, and have a chance if Wolf wins the primary, but for now it's hard to see her winning.

(4/16/14) Some of Sebelius' longtime allies are skeptical she's really seriously considering a run.

(4/18/14) Well, that was over quickly.  Sebelius out.

(5/26/14) State Sen. Dennis Pyle is also looking at challenging Roberts from the right.  He'd probably be a stronger candidate than Wolf, though at this point in the race if he does get in, he'll probably just split the anti-Roberts vote with Wolf, making it easier for Roberts to win renomination since, as far as I know, Kansas doesn't have a runoff.

(6/2/14) The filing deadline is past - Pyle out.

(6/26/14) SurveyUSA has Roberts leading Wolf by 33 in the primary, and leading Taylor by 10 in the general.

(7/5/14) Pat Roberts is his own worst enemy.  This time it's an apparent Freudian slip in which he said he returns to Kansas whenever he has an opponent, and which Wolf is already attacking him over.

(7/23/14) Of course, whenever residency pops up as an issue for Roberts, it seems those X-rays pop up as an issue for Wolf.  Now he's being investigated by the state medical licensing board.

(7/25/14) SurveyUSA has Roberts leading Wolf by 20 in the primary, and leading Taylor by 5 in the general.

(7/28/14) While NYT/CBS/YouGov has him beating Taylor by 17.

(8/5/14) Politico has a primary-day write-up of the race here.

(8/6/14) Roberts won the nomination as expected, albeit with an unimpressive 48% of the vote. Taylor is the Democratic nominee.  Roberts should beat Taylor fairly easily in an unexciting race.

(8/19/14) Rasmussen has Roberts only beating Taylor by 4, but I still think he's pretty safe.  On the other hand, I (and most other people) thought Governor Brownback was pretty safe - until the polls showed otherwise.

(8/20/14) PPP has Roberts beating Taylor and independent Greg Orman 32% to 25% to 23%. Against Taylor alone, Roberts wins by 4, and he loses by 10 to Orman alone.  This is thanks both to Roberts' unpopularity with independents, and some lingering discontent among Republicans.  Likely R.  I would still be very surprised if Roberts lost, but this does appear to be close.

(8/27/14) SurveyUSA has Roberts with 37%, Taylor with 32%, Orman with 20%, and 4% for Libertarian Randall Batson.  Roberts gets only 62% of the Republican vote.

(8/29/14) With the possibility that Orman alone could challenge Roberts more seriously than Taylor could, it's possible national Democrats could try and push Taylor out of the race.  I would consider a Roberts-Orman race, at best, Leans R.

(9/3/14) Taylor out, leaving the race Roberts-Orman.  Tenuously Leans R.  This popped up so quickly I'm still not quite sure how seriously to take the possibility of Roberts losing.

(9/4/14) As an example of why I said tenuously Leans R; Taylor's withdrawal effort is already running into complications.  It turns out he can't simply withdraw to remove his name from the ballot; instead, the only way he can get off the ballot: he can die, or he can declare himself incapable of performing the duties of office.  Since the deadline has already passed, it's not clear he can get off the ballot even if he does this.  And even if he manages to get off the ballot, it appears the Democrats will have to put someone else up in his place, which makes removing him largely pointless.

(9/4/14) Secretary of State Kris Kobach says Taylor must remain on the ballot.

(9/4/14) According to DKE's Taniel, the (limited, obviously) history of elections like this suggests that, if Taylor remains on the ballot but doesn't campaign, he should receive around 5% of the vote or so.  That's not much, but every anti-Roberts vote counts, and it could well be decisive.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Roberts beating Taylor alone by 12.  Obviously, that result was overtaken by events and isn't particularly helpful anymore, but it's a better showing for Roberts than he was getting in earlier polls, so it's at least worth mentioning.

(9/8/14) SurveyUSA has Orman leading Roberts by 1, despite Taylor getting 10%.  And yes, it appears respondents were informed Taylor withdrew from the race.

(9/9/14) Taylor is now filing a lawsuit to get his name taken off the ballot.

(9/12/14) The state Supreme Court will hear the case Tuesday.

(9/16/14) PPP has Orman leading by 7 with Taylor and Libertarian Randall Batson included.  Orman leads by 10 when it's just Roberts vs. Orman.

(9/18/14) FOX News has Roberts up 2 with Taylor and Batson included and down 6 without them.

(9/18/14) Looks like Taylor's off the ballot.

(9/19/14) But the Secretary of State says the Democrats need to replace him.

(9/19/14) Rasmussen has Orman winning by 5 without Taylor in the race, and losing by 1 with Taylor included (I mention this because of the continued uncertainty over whether there will be a Democrat in the race).

(9/19/14) Never mind, it looks like there will be no Democratic nominee on the ballot.

(9/19/14) Confusing the issue further, the Secretary of State now says there will be no Democrat on ballots sent overseas because of the time needed to send them, but otherwise they still need a replacement candidate.

(9/22/14) Ramesh Ponnuru over at National Review offers a good assessment of the race, that partially explains why I'm keeping this Leans R even after the recent polls.  I have doubts about the durability of Orman's lead.  If it's still holding two weeks or so from now, I'll change the rating.

(9/24/14) In the spirit of the last entry, it's also worth pointing out that, thanks to Roberts' complacency, Orman's largely had the airwaves to himself since the primary.  That's not going to hold up.

(9/25/14) We should have a ruling by October 1st whether the Democrats have to put up a new candidate, though there doesn't appear to be any penalty for them refusing to do so.

(9/26/14) The NRA is putting up $100,000 in ads for Roberts.  Meanwhile, Wolf and Orman are talking about a deal in which Wolf endorses Orman in return for a pledge to caucus with Republicans if he's elected.

(9/29/14) Looks like the prospective Wolf-Orman deal has fallen through.

(9/30/14) Maybe no ruling; the guy who was suing to make the Democrats put up a new candidate didn't show up in court yesterday.

(10/1/14) USA Today / Suffolk has Orman up 5.

(10/2/14) Yep, it's Roberts vs. Orman.

(10/3/14) Gravis has Orman up 7.

(10/5/14) NBC/Marist has Orman up 10.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Orman and Roberts tied.

(10/8/14) KSN-TV/SurveyUSA has Orman up 5.

(10/8/14) CNN/ORC has Roberts up 1.

(10/8/14) FOX News has Roberts up 5.

(10/12/14) Pro-Roberts forces are set to significantly outspend Orman.

(10/13/14) PPP also has the race closing, with Orman winning by 3 both with and without Libertarian Randall Batson.

(10/14/14) Remington has Roberts up 2.  Republicans have definitely started righting the ship.

(10/20/14) Monmouth has the race tied.

(10/23/14) Rasmussen still has Orman up 5.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Roberts up 4.

(10/26/14) NBC/Marist has Orman up 1.

(10/29/14) Roberts isn't coming back as well as I expected.  Tossup/ Adv. Roberts.

(10/29/14) SurveyUSA/KSN-TV has Orman up 2.

(11/1/14) FOX News has Orman up 1.

(11/1/14) YouGov has Roberts up 1.

(11/3/14) PPP has Orman up 1 with the Libertarian included and up 2 without him.

Kentucky Leans R Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) (Running)

(12/24/13) This is likely to be one of the most exciting races of the cycle.  On the one hand, McConnell is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country, and his opponent (state Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes) is a rising star, the product of a well-known political family, and was the best performer on a strong 2011 statewide Democratic ticket.  On the other hand, Grimes is politically inexperienced, the climate for federal-level Democrats in Kentucky is absolutely horrendous, and a McConnell defeat would be historically unprecedented.  The Washington Post predicted back in August that this would be the first Senate race in which more than $100 million was spent, and McConnell faces a semi-serious primary from a self-funding Tea Party businessman.  Most polls so far show a very close race, but the edge goes to McConnell because of Kentucky's heavily Republican tendencies at the federal level.

(1/22/14) FreedomWorks is backing Bevin.

(1/31/14) Both McConnell and Grimes took in more than $2 million last quarter.

(2/13/14) Wenzel Strategies has McConnell leading Grimes by a little over a point.

(3/13/14) Nate Cohn has a good piece in the New York Times on this race - I encourage you to read it.

(3/19/14) For what it's worth, Rick Perry is endorsing McConnell.

(4/9/14) PPP for has Grimes leading McConnell by 1.

(4/12/14) Here's an endorsement McConnell can be really happy about - the NRA.

(4/15/14) McConnell raised $2.4 million in Q1 and spent about $3 million.  Republicans were crowing when this happened to Mark Pryor the previous quarter.  To an extent you can say the same things about McConnell, though he isn't exactly hurting for cash on hand - he still has more than $10 million.  Bevin, meanwhile, raised a very respectable $1.1 million.

(4/16/14) Grimes raised $2.7 million last quarter - ahead of McConnell - and now has about half of his cash on hand.

(5/7/14) Hickman Analytics has a new poll out with McConnell leading Grimes by 1 point.  Interesting tidbit: McConnell trails a generic Democrat by high single digits.

(5/9/14) McConnell raised a little over $1 million in April.

(5/12/14) Grimes raised about $700,000.

(5/12/14) NBC/Marist has Grimes trailing McConnell by 1 and leading Bevin by 9, and another big McConnell lead in the primary.

(5/19/14) SurveyUSA has McConnell leading by 20 in the primary and trailing by 1 in the general.

(5/20/14) A poll by Gravis for Human Events has McConnell leading Bevin by 14.

(5/21/14) McConnell beat Bevin by 25 points last night, and both McConnell and Grimes are already fighting the general election.  One thing to look for: one theory about McConnell's low poll numbers has been that a number of Bevinites have been refusing to support him in the general.  Now that the primary's over, at least some of them should follow the SCF in supporting McConnell.

(5/28/14) Two new polls: Wenzel Strategies has McConnell leading by 3, while SurveyUSA has him trailing by 1.

(5/30/14) Rasmussen has him leading by 7.

(6/26/14) PPP has him trailing by 2.

(7/8/14) The (pro-Democrat) Senate Majority PAC is putting up $550,000 in ads against McConnell.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has McConnell up 4.

(8/19/14) PPP now has McConnell up 5.

(8/31/14) SurveyUSA and the Courier-Journal have McConnell up 4.

(9/3/14) Rasmussen has McConnell up 5, CNN has him up 4.

(9/8/14) NBC/Marist has McConnell up 8.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has McConnell up 5.

(9/10/14) Grimes' internal has her leading by 1.

(9/23/14) Reuters/Ipsos has McConnell up 4.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has McConnell up 6.

(10/6/14) In contrast to most recent polls, SurveyUSA and the Courier-Journal has Grimes up 2.

(10/8/14) FOX News has McConnell up 4.

(10/15/14) The DSCC isn't running ads here anymore, and it looks like Senate Majority PAC might be pulling out as well.

(10/17/14) Rasmussen has McConnell up 8.

(10/20/14) The Bluegrass Poll has McConnell up 1.

(10/21/14) Western Kentucky University has McConnell up 4.

(10/22/14) Hm.  Now the DSCC's back in, with $650,000 in ads.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has McConnell up 6.

(11/1/14) PPP has McConnell up 8 with third parties and up 9 without them.

(11/2/14) NBC/Marist has McConnell up 9.

Louisiana Leans R Incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) (Running)

(12/25/13) This is another race that should be close and hard-fought.  Landrieu has probably her strongest opponent so far in Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy, a solid fundraiser, and is caught in a difficult position: if she's too critical of President Obama, she'll turn off the black voters she desperately needs to turn out, but if she embraces him too much, she'll lose more white voters than she can afford to.  Luckily for Landrieu, Cassidy also has a difficult balancing act to perform: attracting moderate voters, and holding off Tea Party challengers Rob Maness and Paul Hollis.  So far, Landrieu appears to have a small lead in the runoff, and neither Hollis nor Maness is likely to upset Cassidy for second place (in Louisiana elections, all candidates run in a blanket primary on election day, and the top two finishers move on to a runoff later if no one gets a majority).  This unique system provides some interesting complications for the race.  To Landrieu's advantage: if Maness or Hollis become a serious threat to Cassidy and he has to fight them all the way to the primary, the winner will have only 1 month to unite the Republicans and focus on Landrieu.  On the other hand: Landrieu may have to worry about dropoff in the runoff; generally elections like that have lower turnout, and the voters that don't show up are disproportionately young and minority - the voters Landrieu needs to win.  The best example of this occurred in the 2008 Georgia Senate race, where the Republican's margin of victory went from 3 points in the general to 15 points in the runoff as turnout dropped by 1.6 million.  Of course, this may not be much of a problem in Louisiana where runoffs are fairly common - in the 2002 Senate race, runoff and primary turnout numbers were pretty similar.

(1/9/14) Landrieu again led in fundraising, but Cassidy is keeping up reasonably well.

(1/23/14) FRC President Tony Perkins is also considering running.

(1/30/14) Rasmussen has Cassidy leading Landrieu by 4, with Landrieu at 40%.  On the one hand, Rasmussen numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt.  On the other hand, these results are pretty similar to the results from the SMOR poll mentioned a few entries above.

(2/6/14) Big-spending green businessman Tom Steyer has named Landrieu one of his potential next targets over her support for the Keystone XL pipeline. Apparently he thinks this will hurt her.

(2/11/14) PPP has Landrieu down to leading by Cassidy by 1 point, 45-44.  More worrying for her, Landrieu's approval is badly underwater (indeed her net approval of -15 is similar to Obama's of -17, and her approval is actually lower than his).  Meanwhile, Cassidy isn't in much danger in the jungle primary; he leads Hollis by 20, while Maness takes 3%.

(2/13/14) Alexandra Jaffe and Laura Barron-Lopez have a good piece on E2 Wire about Landrieu's recent ascension to chair of the Senate Energy and Commerce Committee.  Particularly given this, I want to revisit my earlier remarks on Steyer.  Despite my snark (although I do think attacking Landrieu on Keystone XL will very likely be counterproductive from his perspective), there are ways he could make the attacks damage her, by, for example, microtargeting them to more receptive groups, as Mayors Against Illegal Guns tried to do to Mark Pryor, or by making more general attacks (say, "Mary Landrieu supports destroying our environment because she's in the pockets of oil lobbyists", or whatever, instead of "Mary Landrieu supports the Keystone XL pipeline.").

(3/13/14) Well, Hickman Analytics has Cassidy leading by 4 among likely voters and 9 among definite voters, with much lower name recognition than Landrieu.  Still a Tossup, but /Adv. Cassidy.

(4/7/14) Magellan has Landrieu leading Cassidy by 13 in the jungle primary, but she only gets 39%. Meanwhile, Cassidy raised $1.2 million last quarter.

(4/7/14) Landrieu pulled in $1.8 million.

(4/30/14) Magellan has Cassidy leading Landrieu by 2.

(5/9/14) SMOR has a pretty nasty poll for Landrieu out.  Her job approval is almost 20 points underwater (39/58), with similarly negative reelect numbers.  In the jungle primary she has 36% to 35.4% for Cassidy, 7% for Maness, 4% for Hollis.  She trails the combined Republicans by just over 10 points, with the undecideds presumably very unfriendly to her party.

(5/14/14) Sarah Palin is endorsing Maness.

(6/1/14) The Louisiana Republican Party is taking the rare step of endorsing Cassidy, who is still technically in a contested primary.

(6/13/14) Magellan (R) has Cassidy leading Landrieu by 6 in a direct head-to-head.

(7/2/14) PPP has Landrieu and Cassidy easily taking top-2 in the jungle primary, and tied 47-47 in the general election.

(7/11/14) Rasmussen has Landrieu 46%, Cassidy 43%, other (probably mostly Hollis or Maness) 5%

(7/14/14) Hollis out.

(7/18/14) Last quarter, Landrieu raised $2.1 million while Cassidy raised $1.6 million.  Thanks to Landrieu's spending they're about even in terms of cash on hand.

(7/21/14) Hollis is endorsing Cassidy.

(7/28/14) The Chamber of Commerce is reportedly going to support Landrieu.

(7/28/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Cassidy leading by 1 in the runoff.

(7/29/14) Family Research Council president Tony Perkins (earlier considered a possible candidate for this seat) is endorsing Maness.

(8/18/14) Landrieu is going through a scandal over a pair of trips potentially illegally charged to her Senate office instead of her campaign.

(8/19/14) Cassidy now has more cash on hand than Landrieu, albeit by a very small margin.

(8/29/14) And now Landrieu is dealing with a residency scandal.

(9/4/14) Rasmussen has Cassidy leading Landrieu by 3, with 9% - probably mostly Maness supporters - for 'other'.

(9/7/14) While residency is a political issue for Landrieu, it doesn't seem to be an immediate legal problem.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cassidy up 2 in the jungle primary.  More worrying for Landrieu, the combined Republicans are at 50% and lead the combined Democrats by 12.

(9/18/14) FOX News has the combined Republicans leading the combined Democrats by 12 in the jungle primary, with Cassidy beating Landrieu by 4.  In the runoff he wins by 13.  I'm getting very close to moving this to Leans R.

(9/18/14) Yeah, I'm moving this to Leans R.  The last three polls have had the combined Republicans up by double digits or high single digits.

(9/21/14) I did miss a couple from late August, when the residency issue was just starting to take off. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the pro-Landrieu Senate Majority PAC has Landrieu up 2 over both Cassidy and the combined Cassidy-Maness share in the jungle primary, while the pro-Maness Senate Conservatives Fund has Landrieu losing by 5 to the combined Cassidy-Maness share, but beating Cassidy alone by 6.

(9/28/14) CNN/ORC has Cassidy and Maness combined leading Landrieu by 6 in the jungle primary, and Cassidy leading Landrieu by 3 in the runoff.

(9/30/14) PPP has Cassidy leading Landrieu by 3 in the runoff.

(10/3/14) Pro-Cassidy groups are preparing for a runoff, with $2.5 million in runoff ads from Ending Spending, $1 million apiece from the NRA and Freedom Partners, and $3 million from the NRSC.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cassidy up 6 in the runoff.

(10/8/14) Not a good sign for Landrieu, particularly this close to the election.

(10/15/14) Rasmussen has Cassidy up 9 in the runoff.

(10/16/14) Cassidy has about $1 million more cash on hand than Landrieu.

(10/20/14) The DSCC is buying $2 million in ads for the runoff.

(10/21/14) WAFB has Cassidy up 3 in the runoff.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cassidy up 4 in the runoff.

(10/27/14) USA Today / Suffolk has Cassidy up 7 in the runoff.

(10/28/14) Rasmussen has Cassidy up 4 in the runoff.

(11/1/14) The University of New Orleans has Cassidy up 8 in the runoff.

(11/1/14) PPP has Cassidy up 1 against Landrieu alone.

(11/2/14) NBC/Marist has Cassidy up 5 in the runoff.

(11/6/14) With everything else decided, this little bit of the 2014 elections will be going on for another month.  As expected, it's Landrieu vs. Cassidy in the runoff.  Landrieu isn't defeated yet, but it looks like Cassidy is pretty favored.  Aside from the polls showing Cassidy up in the runoff, the Republicans collectively outperformed the Democrats by 13 points in the jungle primary (56%-43%), and Landrieu doesn't look like she'll be getting much outside help - not necessarily even from the DSCC.  Landrieu does have a history of surviving narrowly, and will be helped by the fact that the Republican Senate majority is already locked away, but it looks like she's going to have a lot of trouble winning this.

(11/7/14) The DSCC is out entirely.  The only outside help Lanrieu is getting is $100,000 from some group called the Humane Society Legislative Fund, while Cassidy has over $7 million up from both his campaign and from outside groups.  The upside of this for Landrieu is that it helps her the localize the election - hard to do when many ads supporting you are being put up by national liberal and Democratic groups - but I'd rather have the $7 million.

(11/9/14) Tea-Party Republicans and Maness supporters are uniting behind Cassidy.

(11/13/14) Cassidy's internal has him up 16, which seems a little high.  Notably, it has Landrieu with a slightly smaller percent of the vote than she received on Election Day.  It's possible this is accurate (it would mirror the results from nearby Arkansas), but even if it isn't it looks like Cassidy has a fairly substantial lead.

(11/17/14) Gravis has Cassidy up 21.

(11/20/14) Vox Populi has Cassidy up 11.

(11/21/14) Rasmussen has Cassidy up 15.

(11/27/14) Cassidy outraised Landrieu by $500,000 last month.

(12/4/14) Good God, (Republican) GEB International has Cassidy up 26.  That seems high (their sample seems overly optimistic for Republicans, but still, this is no longer a question of whether Cassidy will win but rather by how much.

Maine Safe R Incumbent Susan Collins (R) (Running)

(12/22/13) This will be a safe Republican seat as long as Collins is their nominee.  She could still retire (her former colleague Olympia Snowe didn't announce her retirement until February 2012), but most indications she's given suggest she doesn't intend to do so, and I think it's very unlikely she will.  She does face a primary challenge from activist Erick Burnett, but like most incumbent Republicans this cycle, she's a heavy favorite.  The only Democratic candidate so far is former state ACLU director Shenna Bellows.

(12/31/13) Yeah, Bennett isn't a threat.

(3/26/14) The filing deadline is past.  Bellows is the only Democratic candidate, and has been endorsed by the DSCC.

(4/4/14) Collins raised almost $900,000 in Q1.

(4/11/14) Bellows raised over $400,000.

(4/30/14) Rasmussen has Collins leading by 36.

(5/16/14) Collins is being endorsed by her Independent colleague Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats.

(6/23/14) UNH has Collins leading by 55, and with majority support among Republicans, Independents, and Democrats.

(7/1/14) Collins has been endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters, a very rare feat for a Republican.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Collins up 36.

(9/6/14) Rasmussen has Collins up 28.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Collins up 32.

(9/28/14) The Portland Press Herald has Collins up 30.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Collins up 24.

(10/14/14) The Bangor Daily News has Collins up 25, while Pan Atlantic SMS has her up 44.

(10/26/14) The Portland Press Herald has Collins up 35.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Collins up 19.

(10/28/14) Pan Atlantic SMS has Collins up 40.

(10/30/14) Ipsos for the Bangor Daily News has Collins up 32.

(11/3/14) The Maine People's Resource Center has Collins up 20.

Massachusetts (2014) Safe D Incumbent Ed Markey (D)

(12/22/13) Markey isn't terribly well-liked, and his original election was closer than expected.  Still, Massachusetts is a very Democratic state, and even a strong Republican like former Governor William Weld or 2013 nominee Gabriel Gomez would have difficulty here.  If neither of those two run, this should be a pretty quiet race, unless the Massachusetts GOP produces another great candidate out of nowhere, which they do seem to have a knack for doing.

(1/9/14) Gomez out.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Markey beating attorney Frank Addivinola by 25 and Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr by 27.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Markey leading Addivinola by 25.

(9/18/14) Rasmussen has Markey beating Herr by 18.

(9/19/14) The Boston Globe has him up 26.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Markey up 23.

(10/7/14) There's really no reason not to make this Safe D.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Markey up 22.

(10/30/14)The Boston Herald has Markey up 15.

(11/1/14) Western New England University has Markey up 20, while UMass Amherst / WBZ has him up 16.

(11/1/14) PPP has Markey up 14.

Michigan Likely D Incumbent Carl Levin (D) (Retiring)

(12/27/13) Unlike in most marginally competitive races this cycle, Republicans actually have a good candidate here: former state Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land who is fairly well-liked and can both fundraise and self-fund.  The Democrats also have a solid candidate in Rep. Gary Peters.  Most polls so far have Land and Peters very close to each other in support, but Michigan's Democratic lean means Land will have a more difficult time getting to 50% than Peters.

(1/13/14) A rather surprising poll: Harper has Land leading Peters by 8.  I'm skeptical the poll is accurate - it also puts Obama's approval at 35/55, which is far worse than his approval nationally, in a state where it should be better.  I'm still going to keep this Leans D, but I'm open to making it a Tossup.

(1/14/14) Land did have another pretty good fundraising quarter - $1.66 million.

(1/18/14) Rasmussen has Land up 2, but with only 37% of the vote, still well within the expected Republican share of the vote.  Still Leans D, but just barely.

(1/23/14) Another quarter, another million for Peters.

(2/15/14) EPIC-MRA has Land up three in Peters, which means she has now lead in the last four (or, depending on what you count, five) polls, though she still can't get out of the low forties.

(3/18/14) A poll from Denno Research has Peters leading Land by 3, with both candidates in the 30's.

(4/3/14) Republican polling firm Marketing Resource Group has Land leading Peters by 2, 40-38.

(4/3/14) Clarity Campaigns has Peters leading by 6 (with leaners) and 4 (without).  The poll is a pretty clear outlier - it also has Schauer beating Snyder for Governor by 7 points, when the closest other poll has him trailing by 3.  I'm not an expert on demographics, but nothing in the crosstabs pops out to me as out of place. Nonetheless take this poll with a grain of salt.

(4/8/14) PPP has Peters back up to a lead by 5 over Land, 41-36.  Meanwhile, Land raised $1.5 million last quarter.

(4/16/14) Peters raised $1.35 million.

(5/7/14) Hickman Analytics has Peters leading by 5.

(5/28/14) Two new polls: EPIC-MRA has Peters leading by 6; Detroit News / WDIV-TV has him leading by 4.

(6/12/14) Mitchell Research has Peters leading by 3.

(6/16/14) Magellan has Peters leading by 9.

(7/2/14) PPP has Peters with another 5-point, 41-36 lead.

(7/10/14) Land raised $3.35 million last quarter, including $1.2 million in self-funding, while Peters raised almost $2 million.

(7/15/14) NBC/Marist has Peters up by 6.

(7/16/14) Vanguard has Peters leading by 2.

(7/18/14) EPIC-MRA has Peters up 9.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Land up 1.

(7/31/14) Mitchell Research has Peters up 5, while Rasmussen has him up 6.

(8/7/14) Marketing Resource Group has Peters up 7; Harper has him up 1.

(8/8/14) Mitchell now has him up 1.

(8/29/14) EPIC-MRA has Peters up 6.

(8/29/14) Mitchell has Peters up 2.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Land up 1.

(9/9/14) PPP has Peters up 7 with third-party candidates included, and up 6 without them.

(9/10/14) The Detroit News has Peters up 10.

(9/12/14) USA Today / Suffolk University has Peters up 9.

(9/15/14) Mitchell has Peters up 2.

(9/18/14) Denno Research and Vanguard have Peters up 7.

(9/22/14) We Ask America has Peters up 3.

(9/22/14) Magellan has him up 5.

(9/23/14) Rasmussen has Peters up 2.

(10/2/14) Mitchell has Peters up 13.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Peters up 5.

(10/7/14) Alongside two good new polls for Peters - up 9 according to the Detroit News, and up 11 from Marketing Research Group - the NRSC is pulling out.  Likely D.

(10/11/14) Mitchell has Peters up 5.

(10/13/14) Now back up to 11 points.

(10/21/14) Now up 13.

(10/22/14) EPIC-MRA has Peters up 11.

(10/24/14) In contrast to most recent polling, Rasmussen has Peters only up 2.  Never mind, they have Peters up 9.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Peters up 8.

(10/28/14) The Detroit News has Peters up 15.

(10/29/14) Mitchell has Peters up 14.

(10/30/14) EPIC-MRA has Peters up 15.

(11/2/14) PPP has Peters up 13 both with and without third parties.

(11/3/14) Mitchell has Peters up 12.

Minnesota Likely D Incumbent Al Franken (D)

(12/27/13) Franken is generally more liked than disliked, and faces a large but weak Republican field. Among the Republican candidates are businessman Mike McFadden, state Rep. Jim Abeler, state Sen. Julianne Ortman, and St. Louis County Commissioner Chris Dahlberg.  None are well known, and the primary polling is wide open.  McFadden is probably the best Republican to take on Franken, as he's the only one that has shown serious fundraising ability.  This race could become competitive if Obamacare continues to cause Democrats trouble or if a stronger Republican like Rep. Erik Paulsen gets in.

(2/16/14) The Star-Tribune's Minnesota poll has Obama's approval rating underwater, 43-50.  The conditions for a competitive race definitely exist here.

(2/17/14) Although Franken's approval is still pretty good.

(3/5/14) SurveyUSA has Franken leading McFadden by 10 and Ortman by 8.  Meanwhile, a poll for Citizens United gives Ortman a weak lead in the primary, with 16%.

(3/28/14) Sarah Palin is endorsing Ortman.

(4/3/14) Citizens United is endorsing Ortman.

(4/3/14) SurveyUSA has Franken beating Abeler by 12, McFadden by 10, and Dahlberg and Ortman by 8. Meanwhile, a poll by Magellan Strategies has Franken beating Ortman by 3 and McFadden by 6, suggesting, maybe, possibly, a competitive race.  I've said before this might become competitive (it's in the archives), but I'm not moving this off Likely D.  I don't think Ortman's a bad candidate, but her fundraising isn't enough to be competitive, particularly against Franken, and I'm skeptical she'll get too much financial help.

(4/12/14) Particularly with Franken racking up fundraising numbers like this.

(4/16/14) McFadden raised $600,000 last quarter.

(4/30/14) Suffolk has Franken leading the four main Republicans by 15-16 points, but with support in the mid-forties.  Ortman has a very narrow 3-point lead over McFadden in the Republican primary.

(6/1/14) McFadden won the endorsement of the state Republican party Saturday, though to the best of my knowledge there'll still be a primary.  Meanwhile, McFadden has been endorsed by Michele Bachmann.

(6/2/14) But Ortman and Dahlberg are out after losing at the convention; Abeler and veteran David Carlson remain in the race, but McFadden should be advantaged over both of them.

(6/13/14) SurveyUSA has some close(r) results for this race, with Franken leading McFadden by 6 and Abeler by 9.

(6/16/14) PPP has the Republicans down double digits, but with room to grow.  Franken leads McFadden, Carlson, and Abeler by 11.

(7/7/14) Roll Call has a nice piece about this race here - meanwhile, there are some more good numbers for McFadden from the SurveyUSA poll: he has a solid lead in the primary with 44% to 16% for Abeler and 19% for 'other'.

(7/7/14) Gravis has Franken leading by 16.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has him leading by 14.

(8/19/14) McFadden is the Republican nominee.  I'm close to moving this to Leans D.

(8/21/14) Rasmussen has Franken leading by 8.

(8/27/14) KSTP/SurveyUSA has him leading by 9.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Franken up 8.

(9/15/14) The Star-Tribune has Franken up 13.

(10/2/14) Rasmussen has Franken up 8.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Franken up 7.

(10/7/14) KSTP/SurveyUSA has Franken up 18, which is a little high.

(10/8/14) Franken raised more than twice what McFadden did last quarter and has a little less than three times the cash on hand.

(10/21/14) KSTP/SurveyUSA has Franken up 15.

(10/26/14) The Star-Tribune has Franken up 9.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Franken up 10.

(11/2/14) KSTP/SurveyUSA has Franken up 11.

Mississippi Safe R Incumbent Thad Cochran (R)

(12/26/13) Cochran is probably the Republican Senator most vulnerable to a primary.  Conservative outside groups like the Madison Project and the Club for Growth have rallied around his opponent, state Sen. Chris McDaniel, and are already putting up ads for him.  Meanwhile, Cochran is in a much more financially weak position than his colleagues, with less than $1 million cash on hand and lackluster fundraising thus far (we'll soon know how well he's done in his first quarter running).  Most polls show a competitive primary, with small Cochran leads against a relatively poorly-known McDaniel .  Democrats shouldn't have much of a chance here even if McDaniel wins the primary.

(1/23/14) McDaniel had a pretty solid partial fundraising quarter - $500,000.

(1/31/14) Cochran has a new SuperPAC backing him.

(2/20/14) Politico has a good write-up of the race here.

(2/28/14) Childers in.  I'll keep this Safe R, but if McDaniel wins the primary this could become 'more' competitive, though I don't think Childers has much of a chance even in that case.

(3/13/14) Sarah Palin is endorsing McDaniel.

(3/19/14) Politico has a good piece on Cochran's defenders in the primary.

(3/25/14) Cochran does get an NRA endorsement.

(4/2/14) Rasmussen has Childers trailing Cochran by 17 and McDaniel by 12.

(4/8/14) Harper has Cochran leading McDaniel by 17 points, 52% to 35%, which is relatively close considering polls/results in other primaries and Harper's earlier results.

(4/16/14) McDaniel raised almost $500,000 , a halfway decent sum that was dwarfed by Cochran's $1.7 million.

(5/5/14) And now it turns out Cochran listed DC-area addresses as his primary residence for years. Residency issues can be a nasty problem for incumbents in primaries, and I suspect this will be part of McDaniel's attacks from now on.

(5/19/14) A McDaniel supporter (blogger Clayton Kelly) has been arrested for sneaking into a nursing home to take photos of Cochran's wife for an attack video.  Certainly this is bad news for McDaniel, insofar as it generates some nasty headlines and provides some nice attack fodder for the Cochran campaign (including photos of McDaniel with the supporter in question).  There's some dispute over whether the McDaniel campaign knew what Kelly was planning to do before he did it (they've strongly condemned Kelly's actions). If they did, this could put an end to McDaniel's chances.  If they didn't ... well, if we held politicians responsible for everything their crazy supporters did, there wouldn't be any left.  Either way,  McDaniel will probably be attacked over this.

(5/19/14) Polls for the pro-McDaniel Citizens United and the Tea Party Express (pre-Kelly arrest) have McDaniel leading Cochran by 4 and trailing by 8, respectively.

(5/19/14) Another pre-Kelly poll from a pro-McDaniel group - this time the Tea Party Patriots.  They have McDaniel leading by 7.

(5/19/14) The Cochran campaign held onto information about the video for two weeks before giving it to the police.

(5/30/14) Harper has Cochran leading McDaniel by 5.

(5/31/14) A couple new polls: Red Racing Horses has Cochran leading McDaniel by 1 with Thomas Carey taking 6%, while Chism Strategies has McDaniel leading by 2.  If it's as close as the last three polls suggest, it could easily go to a runoff.

(6/4/14) And it's in a runoff.  McDaniel won 49.5%, Cochran 48.9%, and Carey 1.5%.  McDaniel should be favored in a runoff, being a challenger who won the first round of voting, but both candidates are close enough to 50% that Cochran can't be ruled out.

(6/5/14) Some bad news for both candidates:  McDaniel's campaign is facing another potential scandal, while a number of outside groups supporting Cochran don't appear to be planning to play a big role in the runoff.

(6/9/14) The first primary poll - from Chism - has McDaniel leading Cochran by 3, with a narrow majority of 50.6%.

(6/10/14) Tea Party-aligned pollster Strategic National has McDaniel leading Cochran by 6.

(6/13/14) And a McDaniel internal has him leading by 8.

(6/16/14) Chism has McDaniel trailing by 1.

(6/16/14) Pro-McDaniel Citizens United has him leading by 12.

(6/18/14) One potential source of votes for Cochran: Democrats.  The only problem is that anyone who voted in the Democratic primary is ineligible to vote in the Republican runoff, removing the easiest voters to turn out from contention.

(6/20/14) Chism now has McDaniel up 6.

(6/21/14) NSON for the pro-McDaniel Tea Party Express has Cochran and McDaniel effectively tied, with 44.5% and 44%, respectively.

(6/21/14) Another Chism poll, this one with McDaniel up 8.

(6/25/14) Cochran won the runoff narrowly, and probably as a result of relatively high turnout among blacks and Democrats (fairly synonymous in Mississippi).  Cochran should win the general easily, though I wouldn't be surprised if lingering bad feelings about this primary lead to a better-than-usual showing for Reform Party candidate Shawn O'Hara.  There may be legal challenges from McDaniel, but I doubt they'll go anywhere (some Cochran voters may have run afoul of an odd Mississippi statute barring people from voting in a primary unless they intend to support the winner in the general which, unfortunately for McDaniel, is basically unenforceable).

(7/1/14) Rasmussen has Cochran leading Childers by 12, 46-34.

(7/1/14) Michael New at The Corner found some interesting results in the Rasmussen crosstabs. Among those with a favorable view of the Tea Party, Cochran gets 50% to 23% for a third party, 8% undecided, and 19% for Childers.  Among conservatives, the shares are 58%, 15%, 9%, and 18%, respectively.  I'm generally skeptical of arguments of mass, election-moving numbers of conservatives declining to support establishment nominees (they generally come home with time, and the same thing may happen here), but if that occurs anywhere, it'll be here.

(7/7/14) McDaniel is offering $1000 prizes for people who can find evidence of voter fraud by the Cochran campaign, while his campaign manager says she's never going to endorse Cochran given the tactics he used to win the primary.

(7/8/14) McDaniel's campaign intends to file a legal challenge.  They say they've found thousands of ballots cast by ineligible voters, and that the runoff needs to be held over again.

(7/15/14) There's a fascinating new poll out from PPP, with a lot of interesting demographic results. The topline results are 40% Cochran, 24% Childers, 5% O'Hara, 31% undecided.  Conservatives and Republicans are at the very least resistant to supporting Cochran, making up a large part of O'Hara's support, and a disproportional amount of the undecideds.  The good news for Cochran is that they aren't much supporting Childers - he gets 14% of the 'somewhat conservative' vote, 9% of the 'very conservative' vote, and 6% of the Republican vote - but they aren't immediately flocking to him either - Cochran gets 48%, 37%, and 46% from those groups respectively (quite a poor showing), while 30%, 46%, and 37% are undecided.  This isn't to say they won't come back in time (when O'Hara is left out, his supporters among those groups go to Cochran by large margins, albeit with plenty of undecideds), but the degree to which they do is still an open question.  This brings me to the second interesting result in the poll - with Cochran's support so low among the Republican base, how does he do so well in the toplines?  He makes up for his weak support among the Republican base with greater-than-usual support among the Democratic one.  He gets over 30% among Democrats, the 'very liberal', the 'somewhat liberal', and African-Americans (here he actually beats Childers by 1).  This is probably the first poll I've seen of such a high-profile race, this close to Election Day, where neither major party candidate has majority support from their respective party.

(7/18/14) One problem for Childers - he's not raising much and is seriously low on money.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Cochran leading by 14.

(8/21/14) McDaniel's lawsuit is set to be resolved fairly quickly - the hearing for a motion to dismiss is set for August 28th, and the actual trial will be September 15th or 22nd.

(8/27/14) Cochran is officially on the general election ballot, but McDaniel's lawsuit is still ongoing.

(8/30/14) McDaniel's suit was dismissed for having been filed later than was allowed - 41 days after the election instead of the 20 allowed by Mississippi law.  McDaniel still has the option of appealing to the state Supreme Court.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cochran up 15.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cochran up 11.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cochran up 22.

Montana Likely R Incumbent Max Baucus (D) (Retiring)

(1/2/14) Republicans have a pretty good chance of taking this seat thanks to Montana's red lean.  Their major candidate is Rep. Steve Daines.  In a welcome development for Republicans, Democrats are facing a competitive primary between Lt. Gov. John Walsh and former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger. Walsh is favored by the Democratic establishment, but faces some ethics questions.  Bohlinger is still well liked, and can't be counted out.  Daines holds large leads over both, but was damaged by the government shutdown. Meanwhile, Baucus will be appointed Ambassador to China soon.  Walsh will likely be appointed as his replacement, but it's not clear that will help him much either in the primary or the general.

(1/23/14) Well, that's one Democratic headache probably over.  Bohlinger's says he'll consider leaving the primary if Walsh is appointed.

(1/28/14) Daines raised over $1 million last quarter.

(2/3/14) Walsh brought in almost $600,000 last quarter, decent but well behind Daines.  Bohlinger's fundraising, meanwhile, was nearly nonexistent (just $20,000).  I suspect he very seriously is considering dropping out.

(2/6/14) Baucus was confirmed as Ambassador to China today.  Reports are that Gov. Bullock may take some time to choose a replacement, and that Walsh isn't a lock to get it.

(2/8/14) Never mind, Walsh it is.  Now the big question is whether Bohlinger actually does drop out.

(2/21/14) The Washington Post's Monkey Cage blog points out what I've suspected for a while: appointed Senators don't get most of the electoral benefits of incumbency elected incumbents do.

(3/10/14) No, Bohlinger is staying in the race.

(3/19/14) Rasmussen has Daines leading Walsh by 14, 51-37.

(4/9/14) Walsh raised just under $1 million last quarter.

(4/11/14) Another poll, this one from Magellan Strategies, has Daines leading Walsh by double digits (49-36).

(4/11/14) Daines raised $1.2 million.

(5/8/14) Hickman Analytics has Daines leading Walsh by 12.

(6/4/14) No primary surprises here - both Daines and Walsh won relatively easily.

(6/12/14) Rasmussen has Daines leading by 18.

(7/21/14) Hm.  PPP has Daines only ('only'?) up 7.

(7/24/14) Walsh just seriously hurt one of his best assets when it was revealed he plagiarized a significant part of his Army War College Master's thesis - according to the New York Times: "About a third of his paper consists of material either identical to or extremely similar to passages in other sources, such as the Carnegie or Harvard papers, and is presented without attribution. Another third is attributed to sources through footnotes, but uses other authors’ exact — or almost exact — language without quotation marks."

(7/25/14) 538 points to a study suggesting this scandal should cost Walsh about 10 points, basically sinking him.  However, if he's so inclined, he can still leave the race and have the Democrats pick a different candidate.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Daines up 16.

(7/30/14) Now the Pentagon's getting involved.

(8/5/14) Walsh is reportedly considering the possibility of leaving the race (he has until the 11th to do so).

(8/6/14) Walsh has canceled a number of events, lending credence to the possibility he'll leave the race.

(8/7/14) Democrats are looking for potential Walsh replacements.  Among the possibilities: Bohlinger, state Sen. Dave Wanzenreid, former NARAL president Nancy Keenan, and EMILY's List president Stephanie Schriock.  None are particularly great prospects.  Democrats would probably love to get Schweitzer, but he's already declined to run once (twice, if you count the possibility of him being appointed to replace Baucus), so they probably won't.  Any non-Schweitzer Democrat won't be better than pre-plagiarism Walsh, and would face the difficulty of starting a campaign less than three months before the election.  I'll wait a few days for things to settle down (see if Walsh leaves the race, and who replaces him if he does), but this will probably be moving to Likely R soon either way.

(8/7/14) Walsh out.  The state party will pick a new candidate at a nominating convention no later than August 20th.

(8/8/14) Schweitzer and most of the Democratic second-tier candidates - Gov. Bullock, state Auditor Monica Lindeen, and Public Instruction Superintendent Denise Juneau - have all declined a second time to run.  Among those who have indicated interest in getting the nomination: Bohlinger, Wanzenreid, rancher and primary candidate Dirk Adams, former state Health Director Anna Whiting Sorrell, and state Reps. Franke Wilmer and Amanda Curtis.  As it looks like the Democrats will be getting a third-tier candidate (on top of having to start a campaign with less than 3 months to go), this moves to Likely R.

(8/18/14) Curtis is the new Democratic nominee.

(8/21/14) Rasmussen has Daines beating Curtis by 20.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Daines up 18.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Daines up 21.

(10/19/14) MSU Billings has Daines up 16.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Daines up 18.

Nebraska Safe R Incumbent Mike Johanns (R) (Retiring)

(12/26/13) This is another race in which most of the action will occur in the Republican primary.  The frontrunner so far is former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, who starts out with a big lead in polling and name recognition.  Nebraska primary victories often go to the underdog, however; the one to most watch is Midland University president Ben Sasse who has national conservative support and broke state fundraising records earlier this year.  Banker Sid Dinsdale, businessman Clifton Johnson, and attorney Bart McLeay are also running.

(1/9/14) National Review has a cover story on Sasse.  I'm increasingly beginning to think he'll be this year's Ted Cruz.

(1/30/14) Dinsdale led in fundraising this time, taking $685,000 to $570,000 for Sasse, $369,000 for Osborn, and $134,000 for McLeay, though Sasse still leads in cash on hand.

(2/6/14) Sasse is coming on strong.  Harper now has him just over 1 point behind Osborn.

(2/21/14) The Family Research Council is supporting Sasse.

(3/4/14) Phyllis Schlafly is endorsing Osborn, but Sasse probably comes out ahead with the support of Mike Lee.

(3/13/14) Sasse gets Sarah Palin's endorsement.  Meanwhile, a new poll has him trailing Osborn by 11.

(3/28/14) Bad news for Osborn: FreedomWorks is pulling its endorsement of him in favor of Sasse; meanwhile, a Navy memo his campaign put out defending his actions in the Hainan Island incident turned out to have been written by a friend of his.

(3/31/14) He did have decent Q1 fundraising, however.

(4/3/14) Sasse's old boss, Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, is endorsing him.

(4/3/14) Sasse beat Osborn in fundraising again.

(4/9/14) Not really surprising, but Rasmussen has both Osborn and Sasse handily beating Democrat David Domina.

(4/12/14) A bunch of local conservative activists have sent out a letter in favor of Osborn.

(4/22/14) The Club for Growth is putting up ads against Osborn.

(4/28/14) For what it's worth (and I don't think newspaper endorsements are worth very much) the Omaha World-Herald is endorsing Dinsdale, and the Journal-Star is endorsing Osborn.

(4/29/14) A Sasse internal has him with 31% of the vote, to 25% for Osborn and 22% for Dinsdale.

(5/5/14) Dinsdale isn't out either - he just put $1 million of his own money into his campaign.

(5/6/14) And now the Madison Project is putting up ads against him.

(5/8/14) Rick Santorum has endorsed Sasse.

(5/9/14) The Club for Growth and 60-Plus Association have also switched their fire to Dinsdale.

(5/11/14) Magellan has 38% Sasse, 24% Dinsdale, 20% Osborn, 6% McLeay.

(5/14/14) So it's Sasse by a huge margin (49% to 22% for Dinsdale and 21% for Osborn).  Sasse should easily beat Democratic nominee David Domina in the fall - I probably won't be writing much more here.

(5/19/14) Rasmussen has Sasse beating Domina 51-34.

(7/29/14) Sasse leads by 23 in a NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Sasse up 26.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Sasse up 27.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Sasse up 29.

New Hampshire Tossup Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D)

It's hard to predict much politically in New Hampshire these days.  In 2008, it voted for two Dems for Congress, put Shaheen in the Senate, went 10 points for Obama, and returned Democratic Governor John Lynch by more than 40.  Two years later, it replaced the two Dems with Republicans, voted Republican Kelly Ayotte for Senate by more than 20 points, held Lynch to 7 points, and produced a huge landslide for the GOP in the legislature.  Two years after that, it went for Obama, put Dem Maggie Hassan in the governor's office by a solid margin, threw out the two Republican Reps. it had just installed, and returned the state house to the Democrats.  This is just a roundabout way of saying that, given New Hampshire's recent political history, anything can happen.  That said, it's been trending blue and Shaheen is strong enough in early polls to earn a Leans D.

(4/7/13) Rumors have been swirling about a possible Scott Brown candidacy.  There are some definite advantages.  New Hampshire is probably a better fit for Brown than Massachusetts, and voters there will know him quite a bit thanks to shared media markets.  The opportunistic carpetbagger charges, however, will be vicious, and it's still probably much less likely than not.

(4/23/13) Shaheen leads all Republicans by double digits according to Politico, and has a +14 approval rating.  I'm moving this to Likely D for now.

(7/23/13) According to Hotline, State Sen. Majority Leader and former Rep. Jeb Bradley is leaning towards a run and probably won't face too much trouble in the primary.  Shaheen leads Bradley by 22 in a poll from the Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth.  Meanwhile, in case Scott Brown is still thinking about running here, Shaheen leads him by 15 in the Rockefeller poll and 19 in a New England College poll.

(7/24/13) On the other hand, there's this: former Sen. Bob Smith is looking at reclaiming his old seat.  I'm not sure he'd be as strong as one might expect in the primary.  He actually lost this seat in one 12 years ago, and since then he's moved to Florida and tried to revive his political career there, without much success.

(8/5/13) Shaheen has very solid favorability ratings in this new poll.

(8/6/13) Bradley told Peter King "all the rumors are true" about a Senate bid, but later walked it backed.

(8/12/13) Conservative activist Karen Testerman and State Sen. Jim Rubens are exploring candidacies.

(9/3/13) Bradley out.  Meanwhile, Republicans are looking at a possible candidacy by University of New Hampshire business and economics school dean Dan Innis.

(9/6/13) Former Rep. Charlie Bass is considering a run.  I'm a bit surprised, as he seemed the defeated former Republican congressman least likely to go for it.  He doesn't really change things much, though I expect he'd be stronger than Rubens or Testerman.

(9/17/13) There's a lot in PPP's new poll.  Shaheen is in a bit more precarious situation than earlier polls suggest, but still not in too much trouble yet.  She leads Brown by 4, Bass by 10, Innis by 22, Rubens by 17, Smith by 16, and Testerman by 19, and gets a solid-but-not-great +7 net approval rating.  The good news for Republicans is that if they have a decent candidate with good name recognition, they should be able to make it reasonably close.  Neither Innis, nor Rubens, nor Testerman have name recognition above 30%, and they trail by around twenty.  Bass has 75% name recognition, but his disapproval outweighs his approval by almost twenty points.  He trails by 10.  Brown's net favorability is 0, name recognition 80%, and he trails by 4.  This doesn't suggest they will win if they do that.  Shaheen is at or very close to a majority in all head-to-heads.  I'm somewhat skeptical of Innis', Testerman's, or Rubens' ability to threaten Shaheen, but I wouldn't be too surprised if this was fairly close; after all, that's what happened last time around.  I'm not going to put this back to Leans D, but it may go there again at some point.

(9/19/13) Innis appears to be running for the House; Rubens is in.

(9/30/13) Brown's put his Massachusetts house on the market.

(10/10/13) Smith out.

(10/11/13) Testerman in.

(10/19/13) Shaheen took in nearly $1 million last quarter - a pretty good haul.

(10/22/13) In the Granite State Poll, Shaheen leads Rubens by 25 and Bass by 18.

(10/28/13) Now Brown's creating a SuperPAC from his old campaign apparatus, registered in New Hampshire.

(10/31/13) Bass is meeting with some prominent Republicans.

(11/1/13) On the other hand, Brown's been been making some interesting moves too.

(11/4/13) Bass out.

(11/8/13) Well, national Republicans are trying to get Brown to run.  Meanwhile, there's a story on Roll Call headlined 'Scott Brown Steps Up Flirtation With NH Senate Run'.  For some reason, I can't access it, but here's the link anyway.

(12/1/13) Well, Smith is back in.  The possibility of Brown running has been declining for a while with time, and I think this will probably put him out of the race.  The last thing he needs is to move to another state and end up losing the primary.  Smith isn't nearly as formidable as his biography would suggest, but it's still a chance to take.  In the existing primary I would have to give him frontrunner status, given his name recognition and long history in the state, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Rubens or Testerman upset him.  After all, he lost the last Republican primary he ran in in NH, and spent the last decade flirting with third parties and failing in runs for Senate in Florida.

(12/2/13) Then again, Brown may not be quite out yet.

(12/3/13) Brown is still dropping hints about running and may not make a decision before January.  Recently, he dropped 'MA' from his Twitter handle, wrote an op-ed about Obamacare in the state; he will be keynoting the state party's Christmas celebration.

(12/10/13) State party officials are cautiously optimistic Brown will run.

(12/16/13) He is now moving to New Hampshire.

(12/18/13) Shaheen leads Brown by 10 and Smith by 18, according to the American Research Group.

(1/18/14) Little has changed in the general election between PPP's two polls of this race.  More interesting, albeit expected, findings: Brown has a 30-point lead in the primary, but might be vulnerable on abortion, assault weapons, and carpetbagging.  If Brown doesn't run, Smith leads the primary, but with an unimpressive 26% of the vote.

(1/30/14) Brown ties Shaheen 44/44 in a Purple Strategies poll.  If he runs, this will be Leans D at least, maybe Tossup.

(2/3/14) On the other hand, UNH has Shaheen up 10.

(2/5/14) LCV is already spending against Brown.

(3/9/14) Boston Herald has Shaheen with 52% against Brown, leading by 13.

(3/13/14) Well, looks like Brown may be in (he's setting up an exploratory committee).  Back to Leans D.

(3/19/14) Rasmussen has Shaheen leading by 9.

(4/2/14) Brown is announcing for real this time.

(4/8/14) Huh.  A poll for the RGA has Brown trailing by 1 (which turns into a 5-point lead if you include leaners).  Take this one with a big grain of salt.  I'm very skeptical these results are accurate.

(4/10/14) Shaheen raised $1.5 million last quarter.

(4/11/14) UNH has Shaheen leading Brown by 6, 45-39.  She's much more popular than he is, with a net favorability of +14, as compared with -10.  Still, Brown's the best candidate Republicans have got - Shaheen leads Smith by 14, Rubens by 21, and Testerman by 23.

(4/16/14) Smith's fundraising isn't very good - he raised less over the entire quarter than Brown did in the two weeks he was exploring.

(5/7/14) Hickman Analytics, in a poll for the Consumer Energy Alliance, has Shaheen leading Brown by 6.

(5/27/14) In primary news, Brown has been endorsed by Sen. Ayotte, and former Govs. Steve Merrill and Craig Benson.

(6/13/14) Testerman out, endorsing Smith.

(6/19/14) Suffolk/Boston Herald has Shaheen leading Brown by 10 and Smith by 20 in the general, and Brown leading Smith by 28, 40-12, in the Republican primary.

(6/20/14) American Research Group has Brown trailing by 12.

(7/2/14) Brown had a pretty good fundraising haul of over $2 million last quarter.

(7/8/14) While Shaheen set state records with $2.8 million in fundraising.

(7/16/14) NBC/Marist has Brown trailing Shaheen by 8, and continuing a huge lead in the Republican primary.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Shaheen up 10.

(7/31/14) Mayday PAC - an anti-super-PAC super-PAC - is throwing $2 million behind Rubens.  A nice boost, but probably not enough to defeat Brown.

(8/23/14) WMUR/UNH has Shaheen leading by only 2 points.

(8/29/14) PPP for LCV has Shaheen leading by 6.

(9/4/14) POS for American Crossroads has Shaheen up 3.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Shaheen up 6.

(9/10/14) Brown won the Republican nomination last night, with a reasonably convincing margin. He should have a decent chance in the general, but probably won't win without a national mood at least slightly more Republican than it is now.

(9/15/14) CNN/ORC has the race tied.

(9/15/14) Rasmussen has Shaheen up 6.

(9/18/14) New England College has Shaheen up 11.

(9/24/14) New England College has Shaheen up 7.

(9/30/14) ARG has Shaheen up 10.

(10/1/14) New England College now has the race tied.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Shaheen up 7.

(10/8/14) While UNH has Shaheen up 6, New England College has her up 3.

(10/9/14) Both Brown and Shaheen raised around $3.5 million last quarter, with Brown slightly ahead.  Shaheen has $3.5 million cash-on-hand left.

(10/13/14) High Point University / SurveyUSA has Shaheen up 2.

(10/15/14) New England College has Brown up 1, while a Democratic internal has Shaheen up 6.

(10/20/14) Suffolk / Boston Herald has Shaheen up 3.

(10/20/14) UMass Amherst / WBZ also has Shaheen up 3.

(10/21/14) Shaheen has a pretty nice almost 3-to-1 cash on hand advantage.

(10/22/14) New England College has the race tied.

(10/23/14) CNN/ORC has Shaheen up 2.  Tossup/Adv. Shaheen.

(10/23/14) ARG has Shaheen up 1.

(10/24/14) UMass Lowell / 7 News has Shaheen up 3.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Shaheen up 5.

(10/27/14) New England College has Brown up 1.

(10/30/14) ARG has the race tied.

(10/31/14) WMUR has Shaheen up 8.

(10/31/14) Rasmussen has Shaheen up 7.

(11/2/14) New England College has Brown up 1.

(11/3/14) The WMUR/UNH Granite State Poll has Shaheen up 2.

(11/3/14) PPP has Shaheen up 2.

New Jersey Safe D Incumbent Cory Booker (D)

(6/19/14) Booker had a bit of a scare from his closer-than-expected special election win last year, but should be pretty safe from underfunded Republican Jeff Bell.

(6/19/14) Rasmussen has Booker leading Bell by 13.

(7/2/14) Monmouth has Booker leading by 20.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Booker beating Bell by a surprisingly low 7 points.  Still, he's probably pretty safe.

(8/7/14) Quinnipiac has him up 10.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Booker up 15.

(9/10/14) Farleigh Dickinson University has Booker up 13.

(10/2/14) Quinnipiac has Booker up 11.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Booker up 14.

(10/6/14) Monmouth has Booker up 15.

(10/10/14) Stockton has Booker up 9.

(10/21/14) Fairleigh Dickinson University has Booker up 16.

(10/24/14) Stockton has Booker up 24.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Booker up 12.

(11/3/14) Monmouth has Booker up 14.

New Mexico Safe D Incumbent Tom Udall (D)

(12/26/13) Udall's pretty popular, New Mexico's fairly blue, and the only Republican candidate is Dona Ana party chairman David Clements.  Udall is in no trouble.

(1/9/14) Former state Republican Party Chair Allen Weh is running.

(3/25/14) Udall gets a 52/33 job approval and leads of 22 points over Clements and 20 points over Weh in PPP's latest poll.

(4/15/14) Brown raised $275,000 in the two weeks after creating his exploratory committee.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Udall beating Weh by 8.

(7/31/14) While Rasmussen has him up 21.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Udall up 18.

(9/15/14) The Albuquerque Journal has Udall up 13.

(9/28/14) As does Rasmussen.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Udall up 18.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Udall up 16.

(10/27/14) A couple closer-than-expected polls: the Albuquerque Journal has Udall up 7, while Vox Populi has him up 4.

North Carolina Tossup Incumbent Kay Hagan (D)

Hagan's approval is only middling, and incumbency barely means anything in North Carolina, a more-red-than-not state.  That said, she leads all potential opponents to varying degrees at this point.  The three strongest Republicans are Reps. Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry, and Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry.

(4/17/13) In PPP's new poll, Berry "leads" the Republican field with 18%.  She's 5 points behind Hagan at 46-41.  Hagan should probably be slightly worried that Berry has achieved the trifecta (favorable ratings from Dems, Independents, and Republicans), though it's a bit tenuous and may not hold.  Other potential candidates, including Foxx, State Senate President Phil Berger, State House Speaker Thom Tillis, and Rep. Renee Ellmers, trail by 9, 9, 10, and 8, respectively.  Minor declared candidates Greg Brannon and Terry Embler trail by 13 and 10.  Also, Patrick McHenry won't run.

(5/15/13) According to this piece by David Hawkings at Roll Call, Ellmers is expected to run.  Also, Embler is out.

(5/22/13) Attorney and former Ambassador to Denmark James Cain is also thinking about challenging Hagan.  Also, Tillis is expected to declare at some point.

(5/22/13) The GOP primary is in a fairly meaningless tie between Berry and Foxx, with Ellmers and Berger not far behind.  No candidate gets more than 15%.  In the general, Hagan ties Berry and leads all others.  Berry has maintained wide popularity, with (albeit small) net positives from every ideological position and partisan affiliation, and leads by 20 points among Independents.  Interestingly, Hagan does slightly worse in head-to-head matchups despite a small improvement in her approval rating to +6.

(5/28/13) Tillis supporters have formed their own super PAC, Grow NC Strong.

(5/29/13) Republicans just lost their best candidate now that Berry won't run.

(5/31/13) Tillis is in.  The polling shows him to be a little under middle of the pack as far as challengers go.

(6/17/13) Alex Roarty for National Journal writes up the race.

(6/18/13) PPP has a new poll out today.  With Berry out of the way, Hagan is back to leading the entire field, though with a fairly low percentage of the vote hovering around 45%, while the low name recognition of the GOP field (Foxx is the only one who hits 50%) indicates some room to grow.  Oddly, Berger and Brannon do best, holding Hagan to 44% and trailing her by 4.  Foxx is consolidating some support among the primay, with 23% to 11% for Berger and 9% each for Tillis and Ellmers.

(6/28/13) Ellmers says she'll decide in two weeks.

(7/11/13) Hagan brought in an excellent haul of $2 million.

(7/15/13) Roll Call says Ellmers is not expected to run.

(7/17/13) PPP's monthly poll now has Hagan up by double digits against all opponents.  This can partially be explained by name recognition, though Hagan gets close to a majority (an extremely consistent 49% of the vote in each despite having only 43% job approval).  This race will stay Tossup for now, as they've had a poll like this before, after which the race reverted back to the standard single digit Hagan lead.  So the first possibility is that this is another outlier.  The other possibility is, as they suggest, that the unpopularity of the state government they found yesterday is having an effect on the Senate race.  If this persists over the next couple of monthly polls I may change the rating.  The other important finding is that Tillis does better in a smaller primary field.

(7/30/13) Ellmers out.  Berger says he'll have his decision out by tomorrow.

(8/13/13) The most recent PPP poll sort of splits the difference between last month's poll and the usual result.  Hagan leads by 7-11 points and gets 46-48% of the vote.  Tossup/Adv. Hagan.  Tillis and Berger continue to be extremely unpopular.

(8/20/13) Foxx out.

(9/9/13) Berger's made the unusual move of taking out a statewide ad touting his support for voter ID and attacking Obama and Hagan.  If you look up a couple entries you'll notice he missed the deadline he said he'd announce by by more than a month, but these actions suggest he is at least seriously considering a run.

(9/10/13) Another good poll for Hagan from PPP.  She leads all by double digitds and gets 50% or above against all but nurse Heather Grant and and former Charlotte Mayor Pro Tem Lynn Wheeler.  I'm not ready to call this Leans D yet, as all the Republicans have poor name recognition, and Hagan's approval rating isn't really something for her to cheer about.  That said, the race has shifted to Hagan's benefit in the last few months, and I'm becoming increasingly less confident Republicans will win this one.  They also might want to try running someone outside the legislature.

(9/12/13) Rev. Mark Harris is expected to jump in.  He's not really a top recruit either.

(9/22/13) Berger says he'll announce his decision Monday.  Meanwhile, Tillis is getting help from Senator Burr.

(9/23/13) Berger out.

(9/27/13) Berger ally State Sen. Pete Brunstetter won't run either, but Berger could still throw his influence behind Brannon or Harris.

(10/1/13) Odd and surprising poll results out of High Point University.  Their poll finds that only 19% of respondents say Hagan deserves to be reelected, while 56% say it's time to give a new person a chance.  I'll admit I'm really not sure what to make of this.  The rest of the results - Obama, McCrory net approval negative, Hagan around zero - are much more in line with the usual, and, I suspect, much more accurate (or, I should say, if the reelect numbers are indeed correct - as far as I can tell no one else has tested this question so I have nothing to compare these results to - all results from other polls indicate the approval numbers tell us much more about the state of the race than the reelect numbers).

(10/18/13) Rand Paul is backing Brannon.  It's obviously a huge help to his campaign.

(10/19/13) Hagan had another very strong fundraising quarter, taking in $1.8 million.

(10/29/13) Americans for Prosperity is putting up $1.7 million in ads against Hagan.

(11/11/13) Another Republican: radio broadcaster Bill Flynn.  Tillis is still the frontrunner.

(11/12/13) Some excellent results for Republicans in PPP's new poll.  Hagan's net job approval is -5, while Obama's is -10.  Hagan's average lead over the four Republicans - Tillis, Brannon, Harris, and nurse Heather Grant - has dropped from 13.25 to 1.5, and for the first time this race, she actually trails one opponent (Brannon).  The Obamacare rollout seems to be a huge contributing factor to this - more North Carolinians view it as 'very unsuccessful' than every other option combined.  We'll have to see if this holds up over the next couple of months, but for now, this is a pure Tossup.

(11/13/13) Ann Coulter is endorsing Brannon.

(12/10/13) PPP's newest poll has basically the same results as the last one.  The Republicans do a little bit better, Hagan and Obama's net approvals are a little bit worse, and the Obamacare rollout does slightly less disastrously.  The Republican primary is now wide open, with Tillis taking 13% to 12% for Harris, 11% for Grant and Brannon, and 8% for Flynn.

(1/14/14) Still more continuity in PPP's polling.  Hagan's approval is a little down, and at -10 net approaching a bit of a danger zone.  She now trails all the Republicans, though still only by 1 and 2 points.  Tillis now has a bigger lead in the Republican primary, though he only has 19%.

(1/14/14) Meanwhile, former Republican Mayor of Shelby Ted Alexander is running.

(1/25/14) Tillis raised $700,000 last quarter.  I consider it decent but not great; I wouldn't call it 'mediocre', but particularly with the amount of money Hagan has been bringing in, he needs to do better.

(1/27/14) Meanwhile, Rasmussen has Tillis up 7 - 47% to 40%.

(1/28/14) Of course, it's always good to remember this when dealing with Rasmussen.

(1/31/14) Flynn out.  Meanwhile, Brannon raised $250,000 last quarter.

(2/4/14) Good and bad news for Brannon, and bad news for Hagan: Brannon was endorsed by FreedomWorks, but at the same time it came out he's being sued for allegedly misleading investors.  Meanwhile, two bad polls for Hagan came out.  Both Civitas and High Point University have her approval in the thirties and significantly net negative - 38 ad -7, and 32 and -12, respectively - and 56% percent of respondents in the Civitas poll want someone new.

(2/20/14) A jury ruled against Brannon.  He is appealing.

(2/24/14) High Point has Hagan's approval 11 points underwater.

(3/3/14) Elon University has Hagan's approval 15 points underwater.

(3/9/14) Mike Lee is endorsing Brannon.

(3/11/14) PPP's new poll is out.  Not much has changed in the general - Hagan does marginally better than in the last few polls - while the Republican primary has gotten closer, with Brannon now tying Tillis.

(3/14/14) Hickman Analytics has Hagan leading Tillis by 5 among likely voters and 4 among definite voters, though Tillis' name recognition is still very low.

(3/25/14) And Lee is attending a fundraiser for Brannon.

(3/26/14) SurveyUSA has Tillis getting 28% to 15% for Brannon.

(4/2/14) A poll by TWC News has Hagan trailing Tillis by 1; Brannon, Grant, and Alexander by 2; and Harris by 4.  In the primary, Tillis gets 23% to 15% for Brannon, 11% for Harris, and 6% each for Alexander and Grant.

(4/7/14) Both Tillis and Hagan significantly improved their fundraising this quarter.  Tillis raised $1.3 million, Hagan $2.8 million.

(4/8/14) Tillis gets the endorsement of both the Chamber of Commerce and the National Right to Life Committee; the Chamber is also expected to run ads on his behalf.  Meanwhile, Brannon raised $500,000 last quarter.

(4/16/14) Harris pulled in $400,000 last quarter.

(4/16/14) Democrats appear to be trying again to do what they did in Missouri last cycle, help throw the Republican primary to a weaker candidate.  They've released an ad attacking him that seems designed to hurt Tillis among primary voters.

(4/16/14) Tillis has been endorsed by the NRA.

(4/24/14) SurveyUSA has Tillis just under the necessary 40% to avoid a runoff, with 39% to 20% for Brannon, 15% for Harris, and 2% or less for various other candidates.

(4/29/14) National Research Inc. has Tillis at 38% (17% for Brannon and 14% for Harris), while PPP has him at 46% to 20% for Brannon and 11% for Harris.  Tillis also looks fairly safe in the runoff, leading Harris by 26 and Brannon by 18.

(4/30/14) Magellan has Tillis and Hagan tied.

(4/30/14) Meanwhile, it looks like Jeb Bush will endorse Tillis.

(4/30/14) Nate Cohn has a great piece here on turnout.

(5/1/14) Gov. McCrory and Rep. Renee Ellmers are endorsing Tillis, while Rand Paul is coming in for a last-minute boost to Brannon.

(5/5/14) Lots of new stuff in PPP's new poll Tillis' support is down, and Brannon's is up.  Tillis now narrowly avoids a runoff, with just 40% to Brannon's 28% (and 15% for Harris, which is in line with what he's received previously).  In a runoff, Tillis leads Brannon by only 6 points, down from 18.

(5/5/14) Another last-minute Tillis supporter: Mitt Romney.

(5/9/14) Rasmussen has Tillis leading Hagan by 1.

(5/14/14) PPP has Hagan leading by 2, 38-36, with Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh taking 11% (His voters are split evenly between Hagan and Tillis as a second choice).  Neither Hagan nor Tillis are all that popular.  Hagan's approval is 11 points underwater, while Tillis' favorability is 16 points underwater.

(5/30/14) Civitas has Tillis leading by 5.

(6/16/14) EMILY's List is spending $3 million against Tillis.

(6/17/14) PPP has Hagan leading by 5, 39-34.  Both Obama's and Hagan's approval ratings are underwater - -12 and -4 net, respectively - but Tillis' favorability is much worse, at -22 net.

(6/26/14) Civitas has Hagan leading by 4.

(7/10/14) Hagan raised $3.6 million last quarter, and has almost $9 million cash on hand.

(7/14/14) Tillis raised $1.6 million, and has $1.5 million cash on hand.

(7/22/14) There isn't too much new in PPP's latest poll.  Hagan leads (by 7), but with a not-great 41% of the vote.  Hagan and Obama are still well underwater, and Tillis' favorability is still terrible.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Tillis leading by 1.

(8/5/14) Civitas, in a poll that doesn't include Haugh as an option, has Tillis leading by 2.

(8/7/14) Rasmussen has Tillis up 5.

(8/20/14) PPP has Hagan leading by 4 if Haugh is included, and 1 if he isn't.

(8/21/14) Suffolk has Hagan up 2 with 5% for Haugh.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Tillis up 1, with 5% for Haugh.

(9/11/14) Rasmussen has Hagan up 6.

(9/12/14) SurveyUSA has Hagan up 3 with Haugh included, and up 1 without.

(9/15/14) Elon University has Hagan up 4.

(9/15/14) American Insights has Hagan up 10.

(9/16/14) PPP has Hagan up 4 both with and without Haugh included.  Tillis' favorability is beginning to improve with the summer legislative session out of the way, though it's still well underwater.

(9/18/14) FOX News has Hagan up 5 with 6% for Haugh.  Tossup/Adv. Hagan.

(9/22/14) High Point University has Hagan up 2 with 6% for Haugh.

(9/28/14) CNN/ORC has Hagan up 3 with 7% for Haugh.

(9/30/14) Civitas has Hagan up 1 with 4% for Haugh, up 5 with leaners included.

(10/5/14) NBC/Marist has Hagan up 4 with 7% for Haugh.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Hagan up 1.

(10/7/14) Hagan raised almost $5 million last quarter and has $2 million on hand.

(10/8/14) USA Today / Suffolk has Hagan up 1.

(10/13/14) High Point University has the race tied with 7% for Haugh.

(10/14/14) The NRSC is putting almost $10 million into this race.

(10/15/14) Tillis raised about $3.5 million last quarter.

(10/20/14) PPP has Hagan up 3 both with and without Haugh.

(10/21/14) WRAL/SurveyUSA also has Hagan up 3, with 6% for Haugh.

(10/23/14) Civitas has the race tied (Haugh not included).

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Hagan up 3.

(10/26/14) NBC/Marist has the race tied with 7% for Haugh.

(10/27/14) High Point University / SurveyUSA has the race tied with 5% for Haugh.

(10/28/14) Monmouth has Hagan up 2.

(10/28/14) A Republican internal has the race tied.

(10/30/14) Elon University has Hagan up 4 with 6% for someone else.

(10/30/14) Rasmussen and PPP for LCV both have Hagan with 47% and Tillis with 46%.

(11/1/14) CNN/ORC has Hagan up 2 while FOX News has her up 1.

(11/1/14) YouGov has Hagan up 2.

(11/3/14) Harper has Tillis up 2 with 6% for Haugh, and up 3 without Haugh.

(11/3/14) PPP has Hagan up 2 both with and without Haugh.

(11/4/14) Civitas has the race tied with 6% for Haugh.

Oklahoma Safe R Incumbent Jim Inhofe (R)

(12/26/13) Oklahoma is an extremely Republican state, and Inhofe hasn't drawn a strong Democratic opponent.  His only challenger so far is businessman Matt Silverstein.

(6/22/14) None of Inhofe's minor primary challengers is a threat.

(7/20/14) No surprise here: Rasmussen has Inhofe up 31.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has him up 24.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Inhofe up 32.

(9/8/14) News 9/News on 6 also has Inhofe up 32.

(10/4/14) The Sooner Poll has Inhofe up 24.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Inhofe up 42.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Inhofe up 36.

(11/1/14) The Sooner Poll has Inhofe up 34.

Oklahoma (special) Safe R Incumbent Tom Coburn (R) (Resigning)

Coburn announced he'd resign early at the end of 2014, and so there should be a special election this year to choose his replacement.  Potential Republican candidates include state AG Scott Pruitt, state House Speaker TW Shannon, and Reps. Tom Cole, James Lankford, and Jim Bridenstine.  You can read more about them here.  Democrats might, might be a factor only if they nominate former Rep. Dan Boren or former Gov. Brad Henry.

(1/18/14) The Hill reports that Lankford and Pruitt are considered the most likely to run, followed by Bridenstine, then Cole.  Meanwhile, former Rep. JC Watts and former Gov. Frank Keating are also considering a run.  Coburn is expected to back Lankford.

(1/19/14) Reports are Lankford's running.

(1/19/14) Cole and Pruitt out.

(1/20/14) Lankford's officially announced, but neither SCF and the Club for Growth are happy with him. SCF even came out and recommended Bridenstine run.

(1/21/14) Shannon has formed an exploratory committee.

(1/23/14) Not too surprising, but Boren out.

(1/27/14) Keating out.

(1/28/14) Shannon in, Bridenstine out.

(1/30/14) With Bridenstine out, conservative outside groups may avoid this one.  Apparently they like Shannon little more than Lankford.

(1/30/14) Of course, there could still be more candidates.  Former state Senator Randy Brogdon may switch from primarying Governor Mary Fallin to this race.

(2/3/14) Harper has Lankford up 36 against Shannon, 54-18.  Lankford's name recognition is higher than Shannon's but it's not a relatively big disparity. Watts could shake up the race if he runs -  his favorability is higher than Lankford's and he leads by three over Lankford and Shannon.  Absent that, he could be an important surrogate for Shannon.

(2/17/14) Brogdon in.

(3/12/14) A Lankford internal has him up 30 against Shannon 47-17, which is actually a bit of a worse showing than in last month's Harper poll.  One big caveat: the poll didn't include Brogdon, who won almost 40% running for Governor four years ago and could have a big effect on the race.

(3/12/14) Sarah Palin is endorsing Shannon.

(3/19/14) A poll for Oklahomans for a Conservative Future, an outside group supporting Shannon, has Lankford leading by 9, with 7% for Brogdon.

(3/27/14) SCF is for Shannon.

(4/3/14) Shannon has Mike Lee's support.

(4/4/14) Mike Huckabee is endorsing Lankford.

(4/7/14) Shannon raised a very respectable $800,000 in the first two months of the race.

(4/8/14) So did Lankford.

(4/11/14) Democrats have a candidate - State Sen. Constance Johnson.

(4/11/14) More Shannon endorsers: Ben Carson, Erick Erickson, and Mark Levin.

(4/16/14) And Ted Cruz.

(4/22/14) And FreedomWorks.

(4/23/14) A Oklahomans for a Conservative Future poll now has Shannon leading Lankford by 10, 42-32. I'm a bit skeptical of the results, given that it's from a pro-Shannon group and the huge swing (remember, Lankford was leading by 30 three months ago).  Still, primaries can have a tendency to fluctuate wildly, so the results are certainly plausible.

(5/9/14) NSON has Shannon leading Lankford by 1, which increases to 8 in the runoff.

(5/15/14) The SoonerPoll has Lankford leading Shannon by 2, 34%-32%.

(5/16/14) Citizens United is endorsing Shannon.

(5/20/14) A Lankford internal has him leading Shannon by 10.  In lighter news, News 9 / News on 6 has perennial candidate Jim Rogers with a miniscule lead over Johnson in the Democratic primary.

(5/30/14) JC Watts is endorsing Shannon.

(6/1/14) News 9 / News on 6 has Lankford leading Shannon by 2.

(6/12/14) A poll for the (pro-Shannon) Oklahomans for a Conservative Future has Lankford leading by 2.

(6/14/14) Lankford's internal has him leading by 7.

(6/22/14) The Tulsa World has Lankford leading by 3.

(6/23/14) News 9 / News on 6 has Lankford leading by 8.

(6/25/14) Lankford easily beat Shannon in the primary, winning without a runoff.  The general should be an easy win for him and, now that the primary is done, pretty quiet.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Lankford beating Johnson by 23 and Rogers by 27.

(9/1/14) Rasmussen has Lankford winning by 29.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Lankford up 33.

(9/8/14) News 9/News on 6 has Lankford beating Johnson by 30.

(10/4/14) The Sooner Poll Lankford up 28.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Lankford up 41.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Lankford up 34.

(11/1/14) The Sooner Poll has Lankford up 31.

Oregon Likely D Incumbent Jeff Merkley (D)

(12/28/13) Merkley isn't terribly popular, but Republicans don't have a good candidate so far.  The Republican field is large, including surgeon Monica Wehby, former Linn County Party Chair Jo Rae Perkins, and state Rep. Jason Conger.  It's possible this race could become more competitive if a stronger Republican gets in or one of the current candidates stands out, but for now Merkley looks pretty safe.

(4/6/14) Harper has Merkley leading Conger by 7 and Wehby by 12.  Again, not in too much danger, but this race could become competitive.

(4/7/14) Wehby raised just under $600,000 in Q1.

(4/22/14) For what it's worth, a Merkley internal has him up 16 over Conger and 20 over Wehby.  Wehby and Conger are basically tied in the primary.

(5/1/14) Mitt Romney is endorsing Wehby.

(5/3/14) And ... Vox Populi has Wehby leading Merkley by 1 (4 including leaners).  I'm pretty skeptical this is accurate - I'm willing to believe Merkley is vulnerable, but even with Oregon's much-worse-than-average Obamacare, it's hard to believe he's actually trailing - and I think the Harper results from about a month ago are probably the most accurate reflection of the race.

(5/8/14) Wenzel Strategies has Wehby with a 21-point lead in the primary, with 43% to Conger's 22%.

(5/10/14) Wehby has been endorsed by the Chamber of Commerce.

(5/15/14) While Rick Santorum is endorsing Conger.

(5/16/14) Then there's this.

(5/21/14) Solid primary wins for both Merkley and Wehby.

(5/22/14) There's some (unscientific) evidence the stalking charges against Wehby really hurt her.  Because Oregon counts ballots by order of when they were mailed in, and because the charges only came out shortly before election day, there are not only a good number of ballots cast both before and after the charges, we can separate them relatively easily and accurately.  Without exit polling, it's the best we've got.  The results suggest Wehby led Conger by about 20 points among people who cast their ballots before the story, and about 1 point after.  This should be taken with a grain of salt (also this issue probably plays more in a Republican primary than a general electorate), but the broader point that Wehby was damaged by the allegations is probably true.

(5/26/14) Rasmussen has Merkley leading Wehby by 10.

(5/29/14) PPP has Merkley leading Wehby by 14.  The allegations do appear to have hurt her - almost 60% have heard of them, and her favorability is 14 points underwater.  She does have room to grow, with the undecideds solidly set against President Obama.  This stays Likely D.

(6/12/14) A Wehby internal has Merkley leading by 2, while a (much more believable) SurveyUSA poll has him up 18.

(7/8/14) Merkley raised a total of $1.8 million last quarter.

(7/17/14) Wehby raised just under $1 million.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Merkeley up 14.

(8/8/14) SurveyUSA has Merkeley up 19.

(9/6/14) Rasmussen has Merkeley up 13.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Merkeley up 12.

(9/26/14) SurveyUSA for KATU-TV has Merkley up 20.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Merkley up 13.

(10/22/14) SurveyUSA has Merkley up 21.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Merkley up 12.

(10/28/14) The Oregonian has Merkley up 19.

(10/30/14) SurveyUSA for KATU has Merkley up 21.

Rhode Island Safe D Incumbent Jack Reed (D)

(12/28/13) Reed is in no danger.  Even the most popular Republicans in the state would lose to him by 30 points, and none of them are running.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Reed beating Mark Zaccaria by 20 points.

(9/28/14) Rasmussen has Reed up 35.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Reed up 42.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Reed up 35.

South Carolina Safe R Incumbent Lindsey Graham (R)

(1/9/14) Graham was once a top Tea Party target, but lack of a strong opponent has sort of moved this race down the list of primaries to watch.  He's being challenged by State Sen. Lee Bright, businesswoman Nancy Mace, former LG candidate Bill Connor, and businessman Richard Cash.  Things could get more interesting if there is a runoff.  The only Democratic candidate is businessman Jay Stamper, who has little chance of winning.

(1/14/14) More on Stamper.

(2/5/14) Another Graham primaryer - pastor Det Bowers.

(2/26/14) Winthrop has Graham at 45%, though there are enough undecideds to put him over 50 easily. More importantly, none of the primary challengers are in a great position to take advantage of the runoff.

(3/28/14) State Senator Brad Hutto is running, meaning Democrats will have a candidate other than Stamper.

(4/7/14) Former State Treasurer Thomas Ravenel has apparently just announced he'll be running as an Independent.  He performed respectably in the 2004 Republican Senate primary, but has since been convicted for cocaine use (which is why he is now the former State Treasurer).  I don't expect him to win, and I don't expect him to affect the race enough to significantly hurt Republican chances of holding this seat.

(4/8/14) More on Ravenel, who will only be running if Graham is the nominee.  Meanwhile, Bowers raised $400,000 last quarter.

(6/5/14) Clemson University has Graham 49%, Bright 9%, Cash 3%, Mace 2%, 1% for Bowers and Connor, and 35% undecided.  I give Graham a pretty good chance of avoiding a runoff.

(6/11/14) Graham won without a runoff (though his 57-43 performance against such a weak field suggests the Tea Party might have had a pretty good chance here if they had found a decent candidate).  Democrats avoided embarrassment by nominating Hutto over Stamper, but Graham should be safe either way.

(7/7/14) Ravenel is running, but will need to get 10,000 signatures by the 15th to make it onto the ballot.

(7/13/14) Rasmussen has 49% Graham, 30% Hutto, 10% other.

(7/15/14) Ravenel turned in 16,000.  This doesn't mean he's on the ballot, as they still have to be verified, and it's possible there won't be 10,000 valid signatures.

(7/26/14) The Palmetto Politics Poll has Graham leading Hutto by 12, 45% to 33%, with 10% for Ravenel and 4% for Libertarian Victor Kocher.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Graham leading by 13.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Graham up 13 with 8% for Ravenel.

(10/1/14) Winthrop University has Graham up 18 with 8% for Ravenel.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Graham up 17 with 8% for Ravenel.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Graham up 15 with 8% for Ravenel.

South Carolina (special) Safe R Incumbent Tim Scott (R) (Appointed)

(1/2/14) Scott is in little danger in either the primary or the general election.  So far Richland County Councilor Joyce Dickerson and former Commerce Department official Rick Wade are challenging him.

(7/16/14) No surprises here; Rasmussen has Scott leading Dickinson by 22.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Scott leading by 14.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Scott up 21.

(10/1/14) Winthrop University has Scott up 21.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Scott up 23.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Scott up 29.

South Dakota Likely R Incumbent Tim Johnson (D) (Retiring)

This race almost seems set.  Popular former Governor Mike Rounds is already running on the Republican side.  It's now up to Johnson, who is a classic survivor in Red territory but has health problems, to decide whether he wants to face what would almost certainly be a brutal reelection fight.  If he retires, this race may well be over, though Democrats could keep it a possibility by recruiting popular former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.  If she passes as well, they might turn to Johnson's son, U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson.

(3/21/13) In light of this poll, I'm moving this into Leans R.  If Johnson retires, Democrats better hope Herseth Sandlin gets in; otherwise they'll have a West Virginia-style situation on their hands.

(3/25/13) Today's big news is that Johnson's out.  Expect Democrats to heavily recruit Sandlin.  The article at the link thinks Brendan Johnson would be a good candidate, but it's worth noting he would start an incredible 21 points behind Rounds.  Also watch out for a potential primary challenge to Rounds, especially by Rep. Kristi Noem.

(5/9/13)  Businessman and former Tom Daschle aide Rick Weiland is in, and it looks like Brendan Johnson will probably pass on the race.  Herseth Sandlin is still undecided, but there's some evidence that many of the liberal base don't really like her moderate record, though this does not seem to extend to the primary electorate as a whole.

(5/13/13) Herseth Sandlin will not run, and it's looking increasingly likely that Brendan Johnson won't either.  Definitely Likely R.

(6/4/13) If there is a primary, Rounds will have at least the implicit backing of the NRSC.

(6/11/13) Noem's decision to pass has removed Rounds' most serious possible primary opposition.  I'd say he now has pretty good odds to be the next Senator.  Others could still challenge him in the primary, but without Noem's stature they will be at a definite disadvantage.  One can infer from the Rounds v. Johnson polling and Weiland's weak electoral record (one general loss and one primary loss) that Weiland won't be much of a threat.

(6/11/13) Some are still looking for a Rounds primary opponent.

(6/17/13) State Sen. Larry Rhoden is considering running.  Rounds would presumably start as a clear frontrunner in the primary, but given South Dakota's small size and cheap media market he could come from behind.

(7/9/13) Rhoden in.

(7/10/13) More Rounds challengers: State Rep. Stace Nelson is exploring, and physician Annette Bosworth is considering.  This makes it even easier for Rounds to win - if Rhoden (or Nelson or Bosworth) is going to beat Rounds, they'll need every anti-Rounds vote they can get, so any splits are going to make it much more difficult for them to win.

(7/15/13) Bosworth in.

(8/14/13) Nelson in.

(9/10/13) A poll by Harper gives Rounds a decent start.  He leads Weiland by 14 with 52% of the vote, which is actually kind of surprisingly low.  Things might be closer if Rhoden, Bosworth, or Nelson were to somehow beat Rounds, as they lead by 6, trail by 2, and lead by 2, respectively, though I expect most of this is just a function of name recognition.

(10/18/13) In an internal poll for the Weiland campaign, PPP finds Rounds leading only by 6, with Libertarian Kurt Evans at 11%.  Rounds' net favorability is down to +2.  Aside from the general concerns about internal polls, I don't think this is something Democrats should get too excited about.  It was, after all, taken during the shutdown, which will be far from voters' minds on Election Day (I may have a piece up about this soon).  They also shouldn't get too excited about the finding that 58% of voters are concerned Rounds will be too beholden to special interests (is there such a thing as being not beholden enough?). That was asked right after getting 68% to say the government has been taken over by big money interests; they also said Rounds intended to raise double what Johnson spent in 2008, without mentioning that Johnson was in an effectively uncontested race.  In other words, the most appropriate reaction to that finding is to say, "Well, if you ask it that way, what the heck did you expect to get back?".  A simpler way to put it would be to say that the question is leading to the point of uselessness.  Also, I seriously doubt even 5% had an opinion on it before they asked.

(11/12/13) The Native American Times is reporting that former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, who lost the seat to Johnson in 1996, is exploring running as an Independent (under the banner of the state's Independent Party).  His past party affiliation suggests he would hurt Rounds more, but his recent move to the left (according to The Hill, he endorsed Obama in 2008 and 2012) would push more towards the 'hurting Weiland' side, particularly if, as I suspect, he adopts a populist campaign platform.  Of course, he could simply decide not to run (I half expect this move falls under the category of "Hey, pay attention to me. I'm still relevant!").

(11/26/13) The Democratic establishment is warming to (or becoming resigned to) Weiland's candidacy, but the DSCC isn't yet.

(1/2/14) Pressler is in.  I'm still holding to my position that he won't hurt Rounds much more than he will Weiland until I see some polling to the contrary, so I'm keeping this Likely R.

(3/2/14) Rasmussen has Rounds up 20 over Weiland, though they didn't include Pressler as one of the options.

(4/3/14) Former State Senator Gordon Howie is also running as an Independent (to Rounds' right).  He's a candidate who should pull votes from Rounds, but I doubt it's enough to let Weiland through.

(4/4/14) Rounds raised a little over $700,000 last quarter.

(4/7/14) Meanwhile Pressler got less than $10,000.

(4/7/14) Nelson held a press conference with Weiland criticizing Rounds.  He can attack Rounds all he wants, but I don't think teaming up with the Democrat to do it is helpful to his campaign.

(4/18/14) Weiland raised about $200,000 last quarter - the big haul is Bosworth's near-$800,000.

(5/8/14) There are accusations that there may be criminal violations related to Bosworth's ballot petitions. Bosworth will stay on the ballot, and no charges will be announced so as not to affect the candidacy of a potentially innocent person (bit too late for that, but oh well).

(5/8/14) PPP has Rounds with 38%, Weiland with 28%, Pressler with 15%, and Howie with 4%.

(5/15/14) SurveyUSA has Rounds 44%, Weiland 30%, Pressler 17%, Howie 3%, with Pressler hurting Weiland more than Rounds.

(6/4/14) Easy win for Rounds in the primary.  Likely R.

(6/9/14) Rasmussen has Rounds 44%, Weiland 29%, Pressler 18%.

(7/11/14) Rounds (probably) dominated last-quarter fundraising, with $800,000 raised to $40,000 for Pressler and likely not more than that for Howie.  Weiland hasn't released his numbers yet, but I would be very surprised if they are close to Rounds'.

(7/26/14) Roll Call has a nice report that Pressler is increasingly looking like he'll draw more votes from Weiland than Rounds.  Among other things, he's embraced Obamacare.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Rounds up 27.  One methodological concern - they don't appear to have included Pressler or Howie as a named option.

(8/30/14) A few new polls - a Rounds internal from POS has Rounds up 25, a pair of Weiland internals from PPP have Rounds up 8 and 6, and NBP/NPN has Rounds up 13.  Interestingly, all four have similar result for Pressler and Howie, with Pressler in the mid-teens and Howie in the mid-single digits.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Rounds up 14, with Pressler taking 6%.

(9/10/14) SurveyUSA has Rounds up 11, with 25% for Pressler.  If Pressler wasn't in the race, Rounds would be up 2.

(9/29/14) Neilson Brothers has Rounds up 13 with 24% for Pressler.  If Pressler left the race, Rounds would be up 8.  If Weiland left the race, Rounds would be up 2.

(10/2/14) PPP for the Weiland campaign has Rounds up 7 with 24% for Pressler and 8% for Howie.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Rounds up 15 with 12% for Pressler.

(10/8/14) SurveyUSA has Rounds with 35% to 32% for Pressler, 28% for Weiland, and 3% for Howie.  If Weiland left the race, Pressler would lead by 15, and if Pressler left the race, Weiland would tie Rounds.

(10/8/14) The DSCC now believes this is competitive enough to put up $1 million worth of ads attacking Rounds.  I'm of two minds on this.  On the one hand, Rounds has been on something of a downward trend in support throughout the campaign.  On the other hand, the RCP Average still has him leading by 12 - the recent Survey USA poll is the only one not from the Weiland campaign to have him leading by under double digits.  Such a lead makes it seem quite reasonable to me to call this Likely R in a red state.  Hopefully the sudden attention on this race will bring in some more polls.  If Rounds' lead falls consistently into the single digits, I'll change the rating.

(10/9/14) For what it's worth, the SurveyUSA result in the Governor's race was in line with recent polls.

(10/12/14) The NRSC is also jumping in with $1 million in ads.

(10/13/14) Harper has Rounds up 4.  Leans R.  Meanwhile, Pressler has residency issues.

(10/24/14) Rounds' internal has him going from a lead of 8 to a lead of 24 in the span of a week.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Rounds up 13 with 17% for Pressler.

(10/26/14) NBC/Marist has Rounds up 14 with 16% for Pressler.  Republicans seem to have gotten this under control, and it now looks pretty likely Rounds will win (albeit with a fairly unimpressive share of the vote - this probably would be genuinely competitive if it were Rounds against only Pressler or only Weiland).

(10/27/14) The Argus-Leader / KELO-TV has Rounds up 9 with 13% for Pressler.  Back to Likely R.

(10/28/14) Republicans are confident enough in Rounds' position to be canceling their remaining ads here.

(10/28/14) Monmouth has Rounds up 14 with 19% for Pressler.  Add this to the squabbling on the Democratic side, and it looks like Democrats' chances of exploiting weakness on Rounds' part are over.

(10/29/14) Yep.  SurveyUSA, which kind of instigated this whole 'Might Republicans actually lose South Dakota?' thing, now has Rounds up 11 with 19% for Pressler.  The DSCC is effectively pulling out.

(10/29/14) Rasmussen has Rounds up 14 with 20% for Pressler.

Tennessee Safe R Incumbent Lamar Alexander (R)

See Kansas.

(8/15/13) Some groups want Alexander to retire.

(8/20/13) State Rep. Joe Carr has moved over from taking on scandal-tainted Rep. Scott DesJarlais to taking on Alexander.  I consider Alexander to be the heavy favorite at this point.

(8/26/13) A new poll has Alexander trailing a "credible conservative challenger" by 5 points, and the hypothetical challenger almost gets a majority.  Harry Enten has a good discussion of the leading aspects of the head-to-head question and other measures of Alexander's vulnerability here.  I'll pick up where he left off on some of the problematic aspects of the poll.  Much is made of the finding that only 27% of primary voters view Alexander as a conservative, while 655 view his as a moderate or liberal.  But that question came after four leading questions on issues like Obamacare, illegal immigration, and the Internet Sales Tax, and thus can't be trusted to be accurate.  The other problem is with the question itself; more specifically, the use of the phrase "credible conservative challenger" (for problems with this phrase see the Enten piece).  Simply put, it allows voters to imagine their ideal candidate and throw their support behind that imaginary person.  The trouble, of course, is that you can't run a fiction, and when you put up an actual person, they do significantly worse - see here, here, here, here, and here (on the last two, open the 'Hypothetical Polling' box).

(8/28/13) This Alexander internal poll corroborates what I said above.  Alexander gets above 60% of the vote against actual and potential primary challengers (Carr, 2012 candidate Brenda Lenard, activist Kevin Kookogey, and Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett) and leads by 42, 53, 54, and 39, respectively.

(9/3/13) Kookogey is saying he'll run.

(9/4/13) Kookogey will not run.

(9/8/13) So far the Democrats have only managed to rustle up a couple of the minor candidates from last time around.  With extremely formidable former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen not interested, Alexander shouldn't have too much trouble in the general.

(12/14/13) There is an interesting poll conducted for Democrat Terry Adams' campaign  by PPP (probably, though Adams Adams isn't on their client list, so I'm not sure; it's very possible they simply haven't updated it yet), with some topline results out.  Alexander's approval is underwater, and he leads Carr by only 6 points, 46-40.  He leads Adams by 13.  The general election results don't change my mind at all on this race.  The primary results are more interesting.  To say the least, I'm very skeptical, though with just the topline numbers all I do is point to the previous polls.

(2/15/14) MTSU has Alexander up 40, and one of his internals has him up 45.

(4/6/14) Alexander has a new primary opponent, radio magnate George Flinn, a self-funding candidate who's running to promote a free-market healthcare system, not against Alexander.  Flinn seems to me a more serious opponent than Carr, but Alexander should still be favored.  Having Flinn as the nominee shouldn't damage Republican chances to hold this seat.

(5/3/14) Rasmussen has Alexander leading both Democrats by well over 20 points.

(5/16/14) North Star, in a poll for the Alexander campaign, has Alexander leading Carr by 42.

(6/25/14) The local Tea Party doesn't seem terribly supportive of Carr.

(7/15/14) Now that most primaries are done, national Tea Party groups are turning towards this race, but it's unclear how involved they'll actually get.

(7/26/14) Carr has Sarah Palin's endorsement.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Alexander leading the Democrats by 13 and 15.

(7/31/14) Alexander's internal poll has him at 53%, with 24% for Carr and 5% for Flinn.

(8/5/14) Red Racing Horses have Alexander leading by 12.

(8/8/14) Alexander won renomination last night (with 50% of the vote), and should have little trouble against Democratic candidate Gordon Ball.

(8/21/14) Rasmussen has him leading Ball by 15.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov also has him up 15.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Alexander up 21.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Alexander up 22.

Texas Safe R Incumbent John Cornyn (R)

Texas isn't purpling fast enough to cause any threat to Cornyn, though former Houston Mayor Bill White might be able to hold him in single digits.  Another potential Democrat is State Senator Wendy Davis.

(7/3/13) Cornyn isn't in much danger by this new poll.

(8/23/13) Cornyn won't have the endorsement of the state's top Tea Partier - fellow Senator Cruz - but it doesn't look like an opponent will have it either.

(10/9/13) There may not end up being even a semi-serious primary challenger to Cornyn.  That's not to say Cornyn isn't taking the possibility seriously - his ads are all over YouTube (and probably TV as well).  In the last couple of weeks I've seen - or, rather, skipped - dozens of them - though I think I probably watch (or listen to) more YouTube videos than the average Texan.  Meanwhile, Cornyn pulled in a nice $1.8 million this quarter.

(10/24/13) Well, Cornyn does have a primary challenger; immigration lawyer Linda Vega.  This is a rather interesting challenge that doesn't seem to fit the normal Tea Party ones seen all over the country this year.  Vega takes standard conservative positions on most issues, but doesn't mention either Cruz or Cornyn.  Meanwhile, she's on the opposite side of a lot of Tea Partiers on immigration.

(10/31/13) Cornyn has two more primary challengers - businessman Dwayne Stovall and veteran Erick Wyatt - and may soon have a fourth; controversial evangelical and historian David Barton is seriously considering a run.  Wyatt, interestingly, isn't a typical Tea Party challenger either.  He says he's aligned with the Tea Party, but that that wasn't his motivation to run.

(11/6/13) Barton out.

(11/7/13) Hm.  This new PPP poll suggests Cornyn could be in some danger of losing a primary if a serious opponent can be found.  That said, he appears relatively safe for now.  I consider Barton to have been a much stronger potential candidate than any in the field now, and he loses by 33 points.  The sentiment is still there, so it's possible one of the three could come from behind like Cruz did; however, that road for them is significantly harder than it was for Cruz, given Cornyn's money and incumbency, among other things.

(12/3/13) Well, Democrats have a candidate who at least will be able to self-fund.

(12/5/13) Of course, as Nathan Gonzales points out, Alameel needs a lot more than his personal fortune and a 'money no object' attitude.

(12/9/13) Well.  Cornyn's position just got a lot more precarious, with the sudden, unexpected, deadline-day entrance of Rep. Steve Stockman.  Cornyn's poor poll numbers mean he has to take this race seriously, though Stockman has his own difficulties.  He's a more divisive figure than Ted Cruz (comparisons between the two races are inevitable) was, at least initially; will have only four months until the primary; and starts with very little money in one of the nation's most expensive states.  It is possible he could buy himself a little more time, as Cruz did, with a runoff.  That doesn't look terribly likely, however, at this point.  The 2012 race wasn't just Cruz v. Dewhurst - it included other decent candidates, including a former football player and a self-funding former Mayor of Dallas - and the weaker candidates took over 20% of the vote, making it harder for anyone to get a majority (and probably drawing disproportionately from Dewhurst).  The other candidates in this primary are all much weaker, and are unlikely to take nearly as much of the vote, meaning Stockman would need a higher base of votes than Cruz to force a runoff.

(12/10/13) Stockman's path just got a little harder - the Club for Growth isn't getting involved in this race.  There are other conservative outside groups, and I think he'll get help from a few of them.  Still, he needs all the outside money he can get to make it to the runoff, given his own serious lack of funds.

(12/10/13) At The Races has an excellent list of '6 Texas-Sized Primary Hurdles for Steve Stockman'.  Some I've already discussed; others, like campaign and personal finance controversies, I haven't.

(12/11/13) National Review reports that Stockman is having trouble attracting state and local Tea Party / very conservative groups, as well as national ones.

(12/13/13) A poll by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research has Stockman at 6% in a possible primary, and Cornyn at 50%.

(1/24/14) Meanwhile, Stockman hasn't been campaigning much.

(2/18/14) Gravis Marketing has Cornyn leading Stockman by 15, 43-28.  These results are, I suppose, fairly consistent with PPP's earlier numbers. Cornyn should, I suppose, be concerned about the fact that he's below the fifty percent needed for a runoff, and about Stockman's higher levels of support.  That said, what I said before about the runoff still holds, and Stockman has a lot farther to go before he can secure a spot.

(2/24/14) The UT/Texas Tribune poll has Cornyn at 60% among primary voters who have an opinion (note that: it's an important methodological point), to 16% for Stockman and 25% for the rest of the field. Meanwhile, LaRouche-ite Kesha Rogers (you can read more about her here and here) leads the Democratic primary outside the margin of error (by 8 points among likely voters, though once you count respondents without an opinion (above point), the lead drops to two points, 9-7.

(3/4/14) So Cornyn flattened Stockman.  Meanwhile, Alameel is just under a majority for the Democratic nomination, with Rogers a distant second.  He shouldn't have trouble in a runoff, but as I've said before, Democrats have little chance here even if they nominate a sane, self-funding candidate.

(4/15/14) PPP has Cornyn leading Alameel by 17.

(6/12/14) UT/Texas Tribune has Cornyn leading by 11.

(7/7/14) Take a look at these Q1 fundraising numbers: Alameel self-funded almost 8 1/2 million dollars, and spent almost $9 million.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Cornyn up 17.

(8/6/14) Rasmussen has him up 18.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cornyn up 21.

(10/1/14) Texas Lyceum has Cornyn up 18.

(10/5/14) Rasmussen has Cornyn up 21.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cornyn up 20.

(10/23/14) UT / Texas Tribune has Cornyn up 26.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Cornyn up 22.

Virginia Likely D Incumbent Mark Warner (D)

Ordinarily, Warner, being from a swing state, might be considered vulnerable.  Unfortunately for Republicans, he's also the most popular politician in the state.  Outgoing Republican Governor Bob McDonnell is talked about as a challenger, but it's doubtful he'd risk his presumed presidential ambitions on an uphill fight.

(5/21/13) Virginia Republicans plan to use a convention to pick their nominee; because it worked so well last time.  The decision is not final.

(5/30/13) This new poll confirms Warner's safety.

(6/24/13) Virginia Republicans now at least have a candidate, though one who appears to be pretty minor: former 10th District party chairman Howie Lind.

(7/19/13) Warner has a +20 net favorability rating in this new poll, and leads all comers in the upper teens (and with 50%+).  McDonnell trails by 15, Del. Bob Marshall and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor by 16, and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling by 18.

(8/22/13) Warner gets a net job approval of +36 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

(9/18/13) I seriously doubt this will actually happen, but some want Newt Gingrich to run against Warner.  I suppose at least it would be entertaining.

(9/18/13) Well, that didn't take long.  Gingrich out.

(11/16/13) Now some are saying that 2013 Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli should run.  If he ran, I suppose he'd be the strongest candidate in the race, but that's almost entirely due to the weakness of the current candidates rather than his strengths.  You can head over to the Virginia entry on Gubernatorial Race Analysis 2013-2014 for more analysis on Cuccinelli's strengths and weakness; I won't rehash it all here.  Of course, there isn't much indication he'll run.  He just finished a brutal statewide campaign - and may be looking at running for Congress when Frank Wolf retires.

(11/19/13) Cuccinelli isn't shutting down the speculation.

(12/2/13) The Washington Post speculates that both 2013 AG nominee State Sen. Mark Obenshain (who is currently trailing in vote count, but could end up winning in a recount) and 2013 LG nominee EW Jackson could run (he's leaving his options open) could run.  Obviously, if Obenshain ends up winning the AG race, he won't be running.  If he loses, he'd be a decent candidate.  He did overperform Cuccinelli, though I think that has more to do with Cuccinelli's weaknesses than Obenshain's strengths, and I suspect the AG's race represents a generic R vs. generic D race more than anything.  And he has some other reasons to not run.  I've already seen speculation that, even if he loses, he'd be the Republican frontrunner in the 2017 governor's race.  That might be a harder case to make with two statewide losses, unless he does a lot better than expected.  On Jackson, all I'll say is that I suppose if Republicans are going to lose, they might as well do it with a bang, so long as there's no collateral damage (which there probably would be).

(12/7/13) A lot of news came out on this race today.  Cuccinelli is out, and former RNC chair Ed Gillespie is looking at running.  Meanwhile, there's a new poll out from the Washington Free Beacon suggesting that maybe - maybe - Warner might be vulnerable to a strong Republican (in case you didn't get the emphasis, this is something I still have significant doubts on, and would like more information to come out before making a rating change).  Warner handily beats the unknown and disliked Republicans (former Virginia First Lady Susan Allen, State Del. Barbara Comstock, conservative commentator Bill Kristol, Cuccinelli, Lind, and Gillespie) by solid double-digit margins but beats the well-known and generally well-liked Obenshain by 7, while his reelect numbers are down to reelect by 5 points.  That said, Republicans shouldn't get too excited.  Warner is much more formidable than Mark Herring, the man Obenshain probably lost the AG race to.  His job approval is very solid.  The current good Republican position nationally may be fleeting.  There's no guarantee they will get a good candidate.

(12/8/13) Jackson is keeping himself in the public eye.

(1/9/14) Gillespie is in.  As many have noted, with his political connections, he should be very well-funded, and the fact that he decided to run suggests he has some reason to believe Warner is vulnerable.  Given that and the Free Beacon poll, I'm switching this to Likely D.  That said, I'm still not sure Warner has much to worry about, for several reasons: 1) While Terry McAuliffe's victory in the governor's race last year proved Virginians are willing to vote for a semi-carpetbagger former party boss, he was elected under extreme circumstances (see Virginia Governor 2013) that aren't close to being replicated here, and even then only 48% of voters voted for the semi-carpetbagger former party boss. 2) On the money front, one huge factor working against Gillespie is that as things stand this race is still a pretty peripheral pickup opportunity.  In order to compete with Warner's millions, Gillespie will have to convince a lot of people to give a lot of money to a campaign that's a real longshot.  That's a tall order for anyone, even someone with a lot of good relationships with big donors.

(1/24/14) Christopher Newport University has Warner up 20, and Rasmussen has him up 14.

(1/27/14) Lind out, which might be helpful for Gillespie to get the nomination at a convention.

(1/28/14) Former Senator John Warner (a Republican) is endorsing Mark Warner, though it's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

(1/30/14) Former Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert Sarvis is running.  I suppose now we get to see how many of the 6% who supported him just hated Cuccinelli and McAuliffe.

(2/4/13) The candidate fields are set, and Gillespie has three minor challengers - Hill, former congressional staffer Tony DeTora, and businessman Chuck Moss.

(2/15/14) Harper has Gillespie only trailing Warner by 6, 44-38.  If accurate, Warner would be in a much more precarious position than previously expected, and I would move this to Leans D or Tossup.  These results deviate so much from even very recent polling, however, that I'd have to see two or three more polls like this before I switch the rating.

(3/5/14) For what it's worth, Roanoke has Warner leading Gillespie 56-29.

(3/27/14) Quinnipiac has Warner leading Gillespie 46-31 with 6% for Sarvis, which I think is a much more accurate reading of what the race is like now than either Harper or Roanoke.  Warner's approval, favorability, and reelect numbers are pretty good.

(4/9/14) A PPP poll for has Warner leading Gillespie by 14, 49-35.  Meanwhile Warner raised $2.7 million last quarter.

(4/15/14) Gillespie raised an impressive $2.2 million in Q1.  Less than Warner, but still serious cash.

(5/23/14) Strong fundraising for both Gillespie and Warner in April - $800,000 and $1.4 million respectively.

(6/7/14) Gillespie won the Republican nomination at convention.

(7/16/14) Warner outraised Gillespie again, but both of them did pretty well, with $2.7 million for Warner and $1.9 million for Gillespie.

(7/23/14) Roanoke has Warner 47%, Gillespie 22%.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Warner up 10.

(8/7/14) Hampton has Warner leading Gillespie by 25 if Sarvis is included, and 23 if he isn't.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Warner up 12.

(9/10/14) Christopher Newport University has Warner up 22.

(9/24/14) Roanoke has Warner up 19.

(9/25/14) Quinnipiac's first likely-voters poll has Warner up 9.

(9/26/14) PPP has Warner up 13 with Sarvis included and 12 without him.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Warner up 12.

(10/7/14) Christopher Newport University has Warner up 12.

(10/10/14) University of Mary Washington has Warner up 10.

(10/13/14) Warner may get caught up in the Puckett retirement scandal (there's an explanation of the scandal at the link - it's a bit complicated).

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Warner up 10.

(10/28/14) Roanoke College has Warner up 13.

(10/31/14) Christopher Newport University has Warner up 7.

(11/1/14) PPP for LCV has Warner up 9.

West Virginia Likely R Incumbent Jay Rockefeller (D) (Retiring)

Easily the best Republican pickup opportunity thus far.  By a Harper Polling poll (not yet tested, but they seem to fairly consistently lean about five points more Republican than PPP), declared Republican candidate Rep. Shelley Moore Capito leads Rep. Nick Rahall, State Supreme Court of Appeals Justice Robin Davis, and former appointed Senator Carte Goodwin by between 19 and 31 points, and all potential primary opposition by even greater.  The Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund have already declared their opposition to Capito, though whether that will matter is unclear.  Other potential Republican candidates include state AG Patrick Morrisey and businessmen Bill Maloney and John Raese.  Beyond the three polled, the Democrats have a wide bench including State Senate President Jeff Kessler, State Treasurer John Perdue, and state Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.

(3/29/13) Democrats are increasingly talking up attorney Nick Preservati as the sort of pro-gun, pro-coal, moderate Democrat that can hold off Moore Capito.  I'm skeptical.  Remember that Manchin had previously served a couple of decades in political office building up popularity.

(5/9/13) Moore Capito has a primary challenger in former state Del. Pat McGeehan.  It probably won't amount to much, but keep an eye on it.  The NRSC has said it'd be willing to spend money to help Moore Captio in the primary, but if it gets to the point where she needs the help, it'd probably be counterproductive, as the last thing a lot of Tea Partiers want is for the party to boost a candidate.  On the Democratic side, a poll found Tennant the solid frontrunner in a primary, with 40% of the vote, compared to 12% for Davis and 1% for Preservati.  Oddly, the poll only tested Davis v. Capito, who has maintained her roughly 20 point lead.  Preservati's poor showing in the primary also lends credence to my skepticism expressed earlier; regardless of policy prescriptions, he simply doesn't have the pool of good will and favorability Manchin spent years building up.

(6/3/13) MetoNews columnist Hoppy Kercheval says Democrats are bleeding possibilities fast.  According to his sources, Preservati won't run.  Rahall and attorney Ralph Baxter have already taken themselves out of contention, and neither Davis nor Tennant are expected to run.  I do doubt his contention that national Democrats will put much money into this race.  Kercheval probably knows more than I do, but given the early polling I wonder if they'll just conclude it's not worth fighting for.

(7/1/13) McGeehan will have the endorsement of the National Republican Liberty Caucus.  I'm not sure they'll have much influence in West Virginia, and he has very, very far to climb.  Capito remains the prohibitive favorite in the primary.  Meanwhile, in contravention to the last point of my previous entry, Senate Democrats do have a reputation for defending each and every seat they hold, even when circumstances are pretty unfavorable (the only exception I can think of was in North Dakota in 2010 when Byron Dorgan retired and insanely, absurdly popular Republican Governor John Hoeven decided to run; a good idea given Hoeven's 54-point win).  Still, that may be tested here this cycle.

(7/17/13) Davis out.  If Tennant declines, I may follow Nate Silver and just call it Safe R.

(7/18/13) Democrats do have another possible solid candidate - retired Major General Allen Tackett.

(8/6/13) Tackett out.

(8/12/13) Reid says Democrats will have a candidate soon.

(8/13/13) Hotline is probably right in speculating that Tennant is the candidate Reid mentioned, as she would be a solid recruiting victory.  I would consider her definitely the strongest remaining potential candidate.  Hotline also notes that she outperformed both McCain and Romney in her reelection bids, though Romney just barely (this, by the way, is all from their daily Wake-Up Call e-mail, which you should really be getting if you're not). I'm somewhat more skeptical.  It's always worth remembering that victories for lower statewide offices don't necessarily mean much, something Tennant's relatively poor performance in the 2011 governor race (third place in the Democratic primary) tends to support.

(8/30/13) The West Virginia poll from the Charleston Daily Mail finds Capito leading Tennant by 5, 45% to 40%.  If Tennant does get in the race will be much more competitive, though I think Capito should still have a distinct advantage.  I should note that there are some sampling problems (geography, income, education level, etc.) that mean the results should be taken with a grain of salt.

(9/6/13) A group has formed to oppose Captio from the right, though as it's in its infancy now, it's difficult to tell whether it will cause her trouble in the future. For now, I don't consider her threatened.

(9/13/13) Tennant in.  This is back to Leans R for now.

(9/24/13) Capito does pretty well out of the gate, taking 50% to Tennant's 36% in PPP's new poll.  Obama's approval rating in the state is horrific: 28% compared 67% disapproval.  Just under a majority of Democrats disapprove of his performance.

(9/24/13) Full release is out.  Neither Capito nor Tennant look like they'll be seeing much trouble in the primary.  Meanwhile, it should be noted that Capito only leads by 3 among those who have an opinion on Tennant, so she does have room to grow as she gets more well known (on the other hand, those who don't have an opinion on Tennant are far more Republican than those who do).

(10/11/13) Capito raised $770,000 last quarter, and now has more than $3 million cash-on-hand.

(1/28/14) Capito outraised Tennant last quarter.

(2/4/14) I'm switching this back to Likely R.  Capito's well ahead of Tennant in fundraising, and Obama's approval rating here is absolutely terrible.  With the current talk of Republicans expanding the map to Virginia, New Hampshire, and Oregon, and of Democrats abandoning the House to save the Senate, I can't see them putting too much into this seat.

(4/14/14) Capito raised slightly more than Tennant last quarter - both were around $800,000.  Capito has $4.2 million on hand, while Tennant has $1 million.  Nothing earth-shattering in these numbers, so the rating stays where it is.

(4/20/14) Rasmussen has Capito leading by 9.

(5/27/14) The Charleston Daily Mail has her leading by 11.

(7/10/14) Q2 fundraising numbers are in: $1.3 million raised for Capito, and $800,000 raised for Tennant.

(7/29/14) A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Capito up 8.

(8/21/14) Rasmussen has Capito up 17.

(8/30/14) Same from the Charleston Daily Mail.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Capito up 23.

(10/2/14) Rasmussen has Capito up 11.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Capito up 23.

(10/9/14) Capito has almost three times the cash-on-hand Tennant does.

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Capito up 22.

Wyoming Safe R Incumbent Mike Enzi (R)

May retire; doesn't matter.  Liz Cheney's often-discussed as a possible successor.

(5/20/13) "Soldier of fortune" Thomas Bleming is running.  It's worth noting he only got 6% of the vote against John Barrasso in 2012.

(7/6/13) More worrying for Enzi, reports are Cheney is seriously thinking about a primary challenge.  Alan Simpson seems to think this would be a disaster. I frankly don't see how it could be a disaster - the Wyoming Republican Party is so dominant.  Even if Dave Freudenthal runs I don't see Democrats have a great chance here.

(7/16/13) Cheney in.  Now we see if disaster actually does strike.

(7/19/13) Harper's first out with a poll on the primary - and it's not good for Cheney.  Only 6% of primary voters dislike Enzi, and his net favorability among this group is +70.  Cheney's net favorability is +30, and 40 of primary voters have no opinion.  Enzi leads 55 to 21.  PPP will have a poll out next week.

(7/19/13) The Guardian's Harry Enten does a good job summarizing Cheney's troubles.

(7/23/13) More trouble for Cheney in a new PPP poll.  Enzi leads her in the primary by 28, and has a +42 net approval from primary voters compared to her +6.  Even if Enzi decided to pull out, Cheney would trail Rep. Cynthia Lummis by 7.  She's also much weaker in the general election - while Cheney has a net favorability of -10 among general election voters, Enzi has a net approval of +30.  Enzi leads former Gov. Freudenthal by 23 and businessman Gary Trauner by 47, while Cheney trails Freudenthal by 3 and leads Trauner by 18.  Half of respondents don't consider her a Wyomingite and think she should have run in Virginia instead, and even primary voters believe so by margins of 8 and 12, respectively.

(9/9/13) Enzi now has a super-PAC backing him.

(1/6/14) Cheney out.  This race should be pretty clear from here on out.  I wouldn't be surprised if this is my last entry here until Election Day predictions.

(7/29/14) OK, maybe not.  A NYT/CBS/YouGov online poll has Enzi utterly blowing away both Democrats, leading by 45 and 52.

(8/23/14) Rasmussen has Enzi up 36 points.

(9/8/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Enzi up 45.

(10/5/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Enzi up 58(!).

(10/26/14) NYT/CBS/YouGov has Enzi up 40.

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